Boro boss Kim Hellberg admits his team haven’t trained for 9-10 days. Will the lack of match fitness show on the biggest stage of all at Wembley?
Best bets for Middlesbrough vs Hull City
- Hull City to be promoted at odds of 2.75 with Betway
- Draw (1st half) at odds of 2.20 with Betway
- Hull City or Draw (Double Chance) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Middlesbrough 0-1 Hull City
- Goalscorers prediction - Middlesbrough: N/A - Hull City: McBurnie
Hull City finally know their Championship play-off final opponents. Middlesbrough have been handed a second chance this weekend.
The Tigers came dangerously close to missing out on the play-offs altogether. If it hadn't been for a final day home win over Norwich, they could’ve missed out to seventh-placed Wrexham. Their form was patchy in the closing stages of the season, winning only one of their last five games.
Ultimately, it was Hull’s firepower which got them over the finish line. It also aided their cause in their tight semi-final against Millwall. Hull conceded 66 goals in their 46 games. Only three teams conceded more than this in the entire division. Their xG was only the 17th highest in the division.
Yet, they’ve been clinical in front of goal, taking the few chances they’ve created in every game. If they maintain this on Saturday, the scales could tip in their favour.
As for Middlesbrough, their request for Southampton’s expulsion from the play-off final due to ‘Spygate 2.0’ proved successful. Kim Hellberg’s men lost to the Saints over two legs in late, dramatic fashion. The Swedish boss has confirmed the players had almost a week-and-a-half away from the training ground after the loss at St Mary’s.
It remains to be seen whether that break will have aided Boro’s cause. Over the course of the season, Boro had the second-best expected goals for (xGF) in the division. They averaged 1.80 xGF per game, just behind Coventry at 1.83.
Probable lineups for Middlesbrough vs Hull City
Middlesbrough expected lineup: Brynn, Brittain, Target, Fry, Malanda, Morris, Hackney, McGree, Whittaker, Gilbert, Strelec
Hull City expected lineup: Pandur, Hughes, Egan, Ajayi, Giles, Coyle, Slater, Crooks, Millar, Belloumi, McBurnie
Backing the Tigers to get the job done
Middlesbrough laid down a real marker in early December, thrashing the Tigers 4-1 away from home. However, Hull bounced back just a few weeks later to win the return game 1-0 at the Riverside Stadium.
Hull have nothing to lose this weekend. They limped over the line into sixth place on the final day of the regular season. Just being in the final at Wembley is big, but they will surely play with more freedom than a mentally and physically jaded Boro.
Although there will be a sense of relief that justice was done for Kim Hellberg’s side, they haven’t trained for nine days. At this key stage of the season, losing any amount of conditioning could be vital in such a big game. Boro have notoriously struggled against a low block since January, and Hull are the masters of this defensive shape.
We’re backing the Tigers to either pinch the game in normal time or take the tie to a penalty shootout where they clinch a dramatic victory.
- Middlesbrough vs Hull City Bet 1: Hull City to be promoted at odds of 2.75 with Betway
A cagey opening 45
Middlesbrough have conceded just 0.46 goals in the first half of games on average this season. The Tigers have also kept a first-half clean sheet in more than half (54%) of their league games this season. Yet, we can back a stalemate at half-time at a probability of only 47.62%.
The Championship play-off final is known as football’s richest game. There’s not just the reward of playing and winning at Wembley. There’s also the chance to win promotion to play in the Premier League and pit themselves against football’s elite. That’s why this bet is the value play from our trio of Middlesbrough vs Hull City predictions.
Hull’s approach has been to frustrate and contain their opponents and pick them off on the break. We envisage the first half resulting in the Tigers conceding possession to Boro. However, they will struggle to break down a Hull side that genuinely enjoy the art of defending.
- Middlesbrough vs Hull City Bet 2: Draw (1st half) at odds of 2.20 with Betway
Boro have a 50% chance of winning in normal time
We can back the result after 90 minutes to be either a draw or a Hull win at a probability of just 50%. This means the bookies believe Middlesbrough have a 50% shot at winning inside regulation time.
This seems too high when you take everything into consideration. For starters, Hellberg has confirmed his squad hadn’t trained since the play-off semi-final second leg until Thursday morning. The market appears to have reacted positively to Hellberg’s confirmation of Hayden Hackney’s return to training.
Boro’s star playmaker has been sidelined for two months with a calf problem. News of Hackney’s return will boost Boro’s morale, but it’s by no means clear how match-fit the homegrown midfielder is. Throwing him into the deep end of a Wembley play-off final is a big call for Hellberg to make. Boro will also miss the presence of workhorse forward Tommy Conway, who has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Hull’s pragmatic, transition-based style of play will make it difficult for Middlesbrough to break them down. We believe more weighting should be placed on a potential draw and extra time, with Boro’s chances of winning closer to 40%-45%.
- Middlesbrough vs Hull City Bet 3: Hull City or Draw (Double Chance) at odds of 2.00 with Betway