AC Milan are yet to lose away from the San Siro, while Roma average 2.10 points per game at home. Does anything give this weekend?
Best bets for Roma vs AC Milan
- AC Milan (Draw No Bet) at odds of 1.95 with Betway
- Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.85 with Betway
- Draw (1ast Half) at odds of 1.95 with Betway
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For more qualitative betting tips, don’t hesitate to check our Bets of the Week predictions page!
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Roma 1-2 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction – Roma: Malen - AC Milan: Leão, Pulisic
Gian Piero Gasperini’s men were busy in Europa League action on Thursday night, having defeated German outfit VfB Stuttgart 2-0. Unfortunately for them, Sunday’s opponents will have had six days to recover since their last Serie A game at Como.
Roma have been very consistent domestically, winning seven and losing three of their ten games at the Stadio Olimpico. Regarding their short-term home record, they’ve won five of their last six games in the capital. They have struggled at home against the top teams in the league, losing 1-0 to Inter and 1-0 to defending champions Napoli.
AC Milan haven’t suffered defeat in the league since 23 August. They are on a run of back-to-back league wins, with their 3-1 win at Como proving especially impressive. The Rossoneri average more points (2.20) per game on the road than they do at home (2.18).
From an attacking standpoint, AC Milan have also been more clinical away from home. They’ve scored 1.70 goals per away game, compared with their xG of just 1.29.
Probable lineups for Roma vs AC Milan
Roma expected lineup: Svilar; Mancini, Ghilardi, Ndicka, Kone, Cristante, Wesley, Rensch, Pellegrini, Dybala, Malen
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, De Winter, Ricci, Modric, Rabiot, Estupiñán, Saelemaekers, Pulisic, Leão
Betting against the weary hosts
Despite Roma’s impressive home form so far this season, the Rossoneri are more likely to get the job done. However, the possibility of a draw shouldn’t be ruled out. That’s why we’re backing Milan in the Draw No Bet market this weekend.
Roma have averaged 0.50 goals conceded per home game, but their expected goals against (xGA) is more than double this amount (1.07). Moreover, it’s important to factor Roma's Europa League schedule into the equation.
After Roma’s Europa League game with Midtjylland in late November, they faced Napoli at home three days later in a similar scenario to this weekend. Napoli are on a similar level to Milan this season and I Giallorossi lost that encounter 1-0 at home. Milan are a more formidable opponent in 25/26 and Massimiliano Allegri’s men could be genuine Scudetto challengers.
- Roma vs AC Milan Bet 1: AC Milan (Draw No Bet) at odds of 1.95 with Betway
Value on both teams to find the net
Although both sides boast a defensive record, there is head-to-head value on both teams scoring on Sunday. Eight of their last ten competitive meetings have seen both sides find the net.
The betting markets suggest that the probability of this happening on Sunday is just 51.28%, compared with the 80% historical average over the short-to-medium term. Roma average 1.30 goals scored per home game, while Milan average 1.70 goals scored per away game.
Milan have only drawn blanks in 10% of their away games so far this season. Roma have also scored in 70% of their home games. This makes the 51.28% probability of both sides finding the net the value play from our trio of Roma vs AC Milan predictions.
- Roma vs AC Milan Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.85 with Betway
Cagey first half expected
Although both teams are likely to score, the start of the match is going to be slow. Roma have been level in 50% of their home games so far this season at the half-time interval. Meanwhile, AC Milan have drawn in 70% of their away games after the first 45 minutes.
The betting markets indicate a 51.28% chance of Sunday’s game being all square at the break. However, it should be much closer to 55%-60% based on statistics.
When one team is involved in European competition in midweek, there is always the possibility of a hangover when returning to weekend league matters. Gasperini’s men may take a little while to get going after their Europa League exploits. The average time of their first goal scored in home matches is also the 45th minute. This is well above the Serie A average (32nd minute).
- Roma vs AC Milan Bet 3: Draw (1st Half) at odds of 1.95 with Betway