Newcastle’s indifferent pre-season adds value to Aston Villa’s price. Should Forest be odds-against at home to a Brentford side in transition?
| 25/26 Premier League Gameweek 1 Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sunderland to Beat West Ham | 3.10 |
| Aston Villa to Beat Newcastle United | 2.30 |
| Nottingham Forest to Beat Brentford | 2.05 |
| Wolves vs Man City – Both Teams to Score (No) | 1.77 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Finding value in the 2025/26 Premier League opening weekend
Sunderland prepare for their return to the Premier League with a home clash against Graham Potter’s West Ham United. It’s one of the easier opening games the Black Cats could wish for, considering the mounting pressure on Potter to rejuvenate the Hammers.
After replacing Julen Lopetegui in east London, Potter only managed a mere 1.11 points per game in 24/25. West Ham won just five of their 18 Premier League games with Potter in charge.
Frustration among fans has grown over the lack of new signings at the London Stadium.
By contrast, Sunderland have had a buoyant summer transfer window, breathing new life into their squad. Regis Le Bris has been allowed to spend over £130m on new signings, aided by the transfer of Jobe Bellingham to Borussia Dortmund.
Ambitious signings like Habib Diarra, Granit Xhaka, Enzo Le Fee and Simon Adingra should all bring elite-level athleticism, flair and experience to the table this season.
With optimism soaring at the Stadium of Light, it’s hard to see why Sunderland are the underdogs against the Hammers. The atmosphere is set to be electric, which should only play in the hosts’ favour.
West Ham are given a 44.44% chance of winning compared with just 32.26% for Sunderland. There’s huge value on the Black Cats this weekend.
It’s been a tricky pre-season for Newcastle United. They’ve suffered successive defeats in pre-season to the likes of a K League XI, Atletico Madrid and even Hull City.
Eddie Howe has voiced his frustration over Newcastle's inability to compete with other clubs at the top of the Premier League due to PSR restrictions. Consequently, Newcastle have made only two major signings this summer - Anthony Elanga from Nottingham Forest and Aaron Ramsdale on loan from Southampton.
Their opponents this weekend, Aston Villa, have also had a relatively quiet transfer window thus far. However, the recent acquisition of French-Ivorian powerhouse centre-forward, Evann Guessand, certainly adds valuable depth in attack.
Villa only finished below Newcastle by virtue of goal difference, so Unai Emery’s men should be good value to start the season strongly at home. The Magpies’ sluggish pre-season form makes it difficult to find a case for betting against Villa.
Brentford have experienced a summer of immense change. The Bees lost their long-serving head coach, Thomas Frank, to Tottenham. That was followed by the departures of key players like Bryan Mbeumo, Mark Flekken and Christian Norgaard.
With their head coach gone and much of the squad reshaped, some Bees fans have felt uneasy by the appointment of rookie manager Keith Andrews as Frank’s replacement.
Andrews will be tested this weekend with a tricky trip to Nottingham Forest. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side finished seventh last season, just one point away from Champions League qualification – and ten points better off than Brentford under Frank.
With the Bees still finding their feet under Andrews and Forest aiming to build on last season, it’s very surprising to see Forest priced at odds-against in this fixture.
Forest currently have a 48.78% probability to win in the betting markets. However, considering their stable squad and Brentford’s summer of upheaval, their true probability should be comfortably above 50%.
One final slice of value in the Both Teams to Score market
We’ve also dipped into the Both Teams to Score (Yes) market in the Wolves vs Manchester City game to find some additional value.
Six of the last seven Premier League games between Wolves and City at Molineux have seen both teams get on the scoresheet at a strike rate of 85.71%.
Given City’s somewhat indifferent defensive record last season, both teams are likely to score at a probability of 56.50%.
Although Wolves will be without the services of last season’s star man, Matheus Cunha, the likes of Jorgen Strand Larsen and Jhon Arias will be desperate to impress.