Lyon Could be a Value Pick to Underperform in the Coming Weeks

Lyon are firmly in the Ligue 1 European race, but a potential touchline ban for Fonseca could undo all their good work so far.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Lyon May Be Without Fonseca

Paulo Fonseca is set to be handed a lengthy touchline ban following his outburst against referee Benoît Millot last weekend. Despite securing a 2-1 win against Brest, Fonseca was shown a red card before confronting Millot.

French media reports suggest Fonseca could face a touchline ban of up to seven months. Regardless of the exact length of the suspension, it seems highly improbable he will return to the touchline this season.

The big question now is how this absence will affect Lyon’s season. The lack of a manager on the touchline could have a detrimental effect. His impending ban probably comes at the worst possible time, with just two months of the season left.

Lyon are firmly in the European race with 10 Ligue 1 games remaining this season. It remains uncertain whether they can be considered favourites to finish in that position by the end of the season. That all depends on the impact of his forthcoming touchline ban.

For some managers, being away from the touchline can offer a new perspective and improved results. However, for someone like Fonseca, it’s hard to see how that would be beneficial. 

He will still be able to communicate with his coaches from the sidelines, but he will lose some control over the side. This could potentially open up an avenue of value for bettors over the closing months of the season.

Could There be Value in Backing Against Lyon? 

It all depends on how Lyon cope with the absence of their boss on the touchline. However, in theory, there could be significant value in backing against Lyon in the coming weeks. That stands for both individual games and outright bets. 

Lyon’s first game without their boss on the touchline will be Sunday’s away clash with Nice - one of the league’s most in-form teams. Nice are priced generously around evens considering all the mitigating factors working against Lyon. Fonseca’s absence and the Thursday game beforehand are likely to hinder them.

Looking past Sunday’s clash, they play under similar circumstances against Le Havre the weekend after. Le Havre are priced up at 7.00 by Betway to win that game, and that could be deemed as huge value. For those considering a Nice-Le Havre double, that’s priced around 14.00 with Betway.

With Lyon firmly in the European race, this latest setback could open up potential lines of value in backing some of their rivals. Lyon are currently priced at 3.50 for a top-four finish with Betway, but there may now be increased value in backing their rivals.

Marseille, Nice, Monaco and Lille, who sit 2nd-5th respectively, are all considerably shorter prices for the top-four. One team to keep an eye on, however, could be Strasbourg, who are currently behind Lyon and priced at 26.00 for a top-four finish.

Under Liam Rosenior, they are one of the most in-form teams in Ligue 1 and are only six points shy of the top four. They could quickly close that gap, and with a potentially easier path past Lyon now, they appear to be the main value pick for an outright bet.

Strasbourg still have to play four of the sides above them in the table, so their European fate remains in their own hands. However, with Fonseca’s incoming touchline ban, surpassing Lyon now seems to be more achievable.