Kane has now scored at least one goal in his last six successive Champions League games. If Bayern overturn PSG’s slender lead, Kane will be key.
| 2025-26 Champions League Top Scorer Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 1.71 |
| Harry Kane | 2.05 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 34.00 |
| Julian Alvarez | 41.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Find out our suggested bookmakers for odds and promotions: Hollywoodbets and Easybet!
- Want to know more about South Africa's best betting sites?
- Find out about other exciting betting sites with welcome bonuses in South Africa.
Kylian Mbappe remains in pole position for the UCL Golden Boot
The Champions League Golden Boot race could continue until this season’s final. Kylian Mbappe currently leads the standings with 15 goals, averaging 1.48 goals per 90 minutes for Real Madrid. His ratio of a goal every 61 minutes is significantly superior to the rest of the contenders for the award.
In total, Mbappe registered 16 goal contributions from his 11 Champions League appearances in a Real Madrid shirt this season. His La Liga form has been similarly impressive, scoring 24 goals in 28 appearances. The French international is averaging one goal contribution per game in the domestic league.
The 27-year-old may not feature in the final, but he remains in a strong position to secure the Golden Boot. His nearest rival, Harry Kane, needs to score two more goals to move level with Mbappe.
Harry Kane is the only realistic challenger
Following a quieter 2024/25 season by his usual standards, Kane has returned to excellent form in the 2025/26 campaign. The Bayern Munich forward has scored 33 goals in 28 Bundesliga appearances so far this season.
In the Champions League, he has scored 13 goals in 12 games, recording 15 total goal contributions for Bayern. He scored during Bayern’s 5-4 defeat to PSG in the semi-final first leg in France.
Bayern require at least two goals to win the tie outright at the Allianz Arena or one goal to take the match to extra time. There are plenty of reasons why Kane could score one or more goals next week.
Firstly, the England captain is Bayern’s designated penalty taker. Any penalty awarded to the hosts will provide Kane with an opportunity to score from 12 yards. With neither team favouring a defensive approach, we expect an open game that could produce desperate defensive challenges and fouls.
Kane opened the scoring against Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg. He was also the second-most efficient player regarding expected goals (xG), with 1.06. Only Ousmane Dembele with 1.46 xG, surpassed Kane’s attacking output on Tuesday night.
The experienced marksman had three shots on goal on Tuesday, but didn’t miss any opportunities that would be considered ‘big chances’.
If Bayern advance to the UCL final to face either Atletico Madrid or Arsenal, Kane will have a further 90 minutes to score.
Kane currently averages 1.23 goals per 90 minutes in this season’s Champions League. If Bayern eliminate PSG, statistical analysis suggests Kane is highly likely to at least share the award with Mbappe.
PSG’s Kvaratskhelia seems a huge outsider
Paris Saint-Germain winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been a standout performer for Les Parisiens in the UCL. The 25-year-old shone at this level with previous employers, Napoli, but has taken his game to even greater heights at the defending UCL champions.
Kvaratskhelia has scored 10 goals in 14 appearances, registering 15 goal contributions during this period. He is currently averaging 0.93 goals per 90 minutes in the competition.
As it stands, the Georgian international is five goals behind Mbappe. It is highly unlikely he will score five or six goals in a maximum of two remaining games in the tournament.
The betting markets indicate he has a 2.50% probability of matching Mbappe’s goal tally. However, he would need to outperform his goals-per-90-minute average by two or three times to achieve this.
Atleti’s Alvarez may offer the most value among the rank outsiders
Atletico Madrid’s Julian Alvarez could be the most intriguing outsider to consider for the UCL Golden Boot. Like Kvaratskhelia, he is five goals short of Mbappe’s tally. He scored from the penalty spot in Atleti’s semi-final first leg against Arsenal.
The Argentine has a 49% shot accuracy, which is far better than that of Kvaratskhelia (36%). If Atletico Madrid need to attack the tie at the Emirates Stadium, Alvarez is the most likely candidate to score against the Gunners.
There is one significant fitness concern regarding Alvarez. The striker was substituted due to an injury 13 minutes from the end of the first leg. Manager Diego Simeone is confident Alvarez will be fit to play in the second leg. However, his availability depends on whether his ankle problem improves in the coming days.