City’s odds to win the EPL have been shortened to 3/1, as punters fear Arsenal will squander their lead. However, City are not in good form.
| 2025/26 Premier League Winner Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.40 |
| Manchester City | 3.75 |
| Aston Villa | 15.00 |
| Manchester United | 51.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Find out our suggested bookmakers for odds and promotions: Hollywoodbets and Easybet!
- Want to know more about South Africa's best betting sites?
- Find out about other exciting betting sites with welcome bonuses in South Africa.
Are Arsenal at risk of being the Premier League bridesmaids again?
There was a palpable sense of tension around the Emirates Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Gunners’ shocking 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United has raised fears that Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal could blow their lead at the EPL summit.
Arsenal have been characterised as the ‘nearly men’ of the Premier League for some time. The Gunners have finished runners-up in the last three successive seasons.
They have now picked up just two points from their last three games. Meanwhile, Manchester City have overtaken Arsenal on goal difference. The Gunners’ GD now stands at +25 compared with City’s +26, although Arsenal’s defensive record remains superior.
It’s not the defence that Arteta needs to worry about, but the other end of the pitch. Creativity is fast becoming a serious issue for Arsenal. Their overreliance on set pieces is one of the biggest talking points right now.
More than a third (35.7%) of their goals scored in the EPL this season have derived from set plays. That’s the fourth-highest percentage of goals from set pieces in the league.
Arsenal’s playmaking in the final third has been underwhelming in recent weeks. They registered an xG from open play of just 0.39 goals against United, with the Red Devils almost doubling that figure (0.73).
Looking at their United loss in isolation, Arsenal made just 132 forward passes from their 443 passes completed. That’s compared to 123 forward passes from 364 passes completed for Michael Carrick’s United. Arsenal seem to be struggling to break through Premier League defences effectively.
It was a similar story in Arsenal’s goalless draw at Nottingham Forest in the previous week. Although the Gunners achieved an xG of 2.07, 1.40 came from set plays.
They also registered just 109 successful final-third passes from 494 passes completed. That’s a much poorer return than the 94 successful final-third passes from Forest’s 321 completed passes – a side currently 17th in the EPL.
All of this underlines the fact that Arsenal’s well-oiled attack is starting to show signs of stalling.
Assessing City’s title chances – and Villa’s dark-horse bid
At face value, it’s easy to see why some punters are now tucking into Manchester City’s 3/1 odds to lift the title. With Arsenal stuttering and lacking cohesion in the final third, City are now just four points behind the Gunners.
Pep Guardiola’s men also host Arsenal at the Etihad in April, which could be a pivotal moment in the season.
City have also been very active in the January transfer window. They’ve spent big at both ends of the pitch. Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo has arrived to add more goals and power to the front line. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace’s homegrown centre-back Marc Guehi also joined City in a cut-price deal.
There’s no doubt that City can be an irresistible attacking force. They’ve scored an average of 2.05 goals per game so far in 2025/26. Yet, their underlying data suggests this may be a case of overperforming.
As it stands, City have scored 5.4 goals more than their xG of 41.6. They’ve also conceded five fewer goals than expected, based on their xGA of 26.0.
No other team in the top five of the Premier League is currently overperforming both xG and xGA metrics.
This suggests any minor regression to the mean could result in some more defensive horror shows. However, Guardiola hopes Guehi’s arrival and a slowly improving injury crisis can guard against this.
If their last five league games are anything to go by, it’s hard to back City for the title at any price. They sit 15th in the form table over the last five matches, having picked up just six points. By comparison, Arsenal sit fourth in the form table over the same period.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa remain very much in the picture. They are level on points with City and sit four points behind the Gunners.
The concern for Villa lies in their underlying xG data, which suggests their current results may not be sustainable.
Over the course of the season, Villa’s expected points (xPTS) stand at just 28. That tally would put them 13th in the EPL.
They have conceded 8.5 goals fewer than they should have, based on their 33.50 xGA. They’ve also outperformed their xG by 6.7 goals. Only Tottenham (+9.0 goals) have outperformed their xG by a greater margin.
Although xG isn’t always flawless, it tends to reflect trends accurately over the long term. Ultimately, if Arsenal can find their shooting boots in open play, they’ll remain firmly in control to win their first title since 2004.