With some of the division’s biggest players spending the summer on international duty, we expect a relatively slow start to the campaign.
| Premier League opening day | Odds |
| Arsenal to beat Coventry and Under 3.5 goals | 1.90 |
| Man City vs Bournemouth - Under 3.5 goals | 1.85 |
| Liverpool vs Newcastle - Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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No opening-day goalfest in sight
Recent seasons have seen teams ease their way back into things when domestic football returns. The opening day of the 2025/26 season had five games with under 2.5 goals, and nine teams failed to score. In 2024/25, only three of the first-round fixtures produced three goals or more.
The same pattern was seen in 2023/24, where around half of the opening games featured two goals or fewer. The trend repeated in 2022/23. We expect this season’s fixtures to follow a similar pattern.
Looking further back, post-World Cup seasons such as 2018/19 and 2014/15 were quite similar. Once more, around half of the games were low-scoring, with two goals or fewer. Eight teams failed to score in the 2018 opening round of fixtures. The first round of fixtures after the 2022 World Cup had more goals (nine Over 2.5), but that was a mid-season tournament.
With all that in mind, we’re backing the trend to continue in August when England’s elite clubs return to action. A total of 182 Premier League players were selected for the tournament in America, Mexico, and Canada. Many of them need time to recover before shining for their clubs once again.
Which teams to back
Arsenal (2.50), Manchester City (4.50) and Liverpool (6.50) are the bookies’ top three when it comes to the title race. All three have winnable games on Matchday one, but they’ve also all got a lot of players playing in North America this summer. For that reason, we’re looking at the unders market here.
The Gunners haven’t scored many on opening days in recent years. They have 15 players at the global showpiece, and many of them are expected to go deep into the competition. They’re up against newly-promoted Coventry City, but we envisage a professional win rather than a thumping.
Over the last five seasons, Arsenal have only been beaten once in the first game. Four of those games finished with fewer than three goals scored. Additionally, Mikel Arteta’s men kept three clean sheets over the same period. They tend to start well. The Sky Blues will have a tough time in their first top-flight game since 2001.
Then there’s City, who have more players at the World Cup than any other Premier League team, with 19 representatives. They’re taking on a Bournemouth side who have seven players away, although not all will be absent for too long. We expect a relatively low-scoring game in this one, with both clubs still finding their feet under new managers.
The Citizens can be relatively slow starters. They beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-0 at the start of last season, but that was against a side that eventually finished bottom of the league. Manchester City’s previous four campaign debuts all ended with fewer than four goals scored and three clean sheets for the Mancunians.
Our third pick involves the Reds, who will also have a new boss in charge for the first time. Their opening game last season was a six-goal thriller, but we can’t see the same thing happening this time around. They have several key players away with their national team, as do Newcastle United, so we expect a slow and steady start.
The Merseysiders have been busier on opening days than many of their counterparts in recent years. They’ve scored 12 goals over the last five, but Newcastle are stronger opponents than the likes of Norwich City and Ipswich Town. This game should be more like their opener against Chelsea in 2023, which finished with a 1-1 draw.
On the back of the biggest World Cup of all time, we think the Premier League will ease into things this time around. The goals will come eventually, but fans may have to wait for the true level of intensity the division has to offer.