Our betting expert expects South Africa to capitalise on a technical home ground advantage to defeat Lesotho.
Best bets for Lesotho
- BTTS - No at odds of 1.31 on Betway
- South Africa totals - over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.58 on Betway
- 1x2 - South Africa at odds of 1.27 on Betway
We expect South Africa to win 2-0.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
With four more matches left to play in their World Cup qualifiers, Lesotho have a slight chance of finishing in first place. However, it would require a miracle, and a loss to South Africa would end their hopes of topping the group.
That’s why Leslie Notši must prepare his side for their upcoming game against their close neighbours. Three draws in their six qualifiers show that they can cause problems, like they did when they defeated Zimbabwe in their second match.
However, they’ll be wary that even though they’re listed as the home team here, playing at the Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein is equally, if not more, South Africa’s home. That will encourage Bafana Bafana to take a step closer to World Cup qualification.
Hugo Broos’s men have 13 points from six games and lead Group C. They’re on course to secure a place in the World Cup and need an additional seven points to all but guarantee their spot at the top of the group.
Bafana will feel confident facing their neighbor, as they’ve only lost twice in 12 meetings. With one defeat in their qualifying campaign, it would be difficult to bet against them.
Probable lineups for Lesotho vs South Africa
Lesotho expected lineup: Sekhoane; Malane, Mkwanazi, Makhele, Rasethuntša; Kalake, Matsau, Toloane, Mokhachane; Bereng, Lintsa
South Africa expected lineup: Williams; Mobbie, Okon, Ngezana, Modiba; Aubaas, Mbatha, Le Roux; Appollis, Rayners, Foster
Lesotho's lack of attack
Lesotho’s primary issue in their qualifying campaign has been their lack of attacking returns. They’ve only scored four goals across six fixtures, an average of 0.66 goals per match. The Crocodiles failed to find the back of the net in three of their last five outings (60%).
That will encourage Broos, who have called up several new defenders. They should be confident in dealing with the threat from the home side. In their history against South Africa, Lesotho have only managed nine goals in 12 games.
Bafana Bafana have kept a clean sheet against this opponent in each of the last three head-to-heads in all competitions. That’s a total of seven shutouts across their last 10 meetings (70%). This adds to the belief that South Africa could prevent their opponents from scoring.
- Lesotho vs South Africa Betting Tip 1: BTTS - No 1.31 on Betway
Destined for goals
Bafana Bafana have been the most efficient nation in Group C, having scored 10 goals across their six fixtures at an average of 1.6 goals per game. With the likes of Lyle Foster, Oswin Appollis, and Iqraam Rayners in attack, the visiting side are expected to find the net.
All six of Bafana’s games produced more than one goal, but they’ve netted at least once in five of those matches. South Africa have scored a minimum of two goals in their last three consecutive outings in this competition.
Against Lesotho, a similar trend was observed, with Bafana scoring a minimum of two goals in four of their last five head-to-heads. So, the visitors are likely to score plenty of goals in Bloemfontein.
- Lesotho vs South Africa Betting Tip 2: South Africa overs/ unders - over 1.5 goals at odds 1.58 on Betway
No legit home advantage
South Africa’s advantage in this fixture is clear. They’ve won five of the 12 meetings with the hosts and lost only two. With an unbeaten streak of four games in all competitions, Bafana will be tough to defeat.
Three defeats in Lesotho’s last six matches suggest that they could struggle here. This is especially likely because they have no true home advantage, since they’re playing in South Africa. Broos’s men can use that fact to their advantage and comfortably secure three points.
- Lesotho vs South Africa Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - South Africa at odds of 1.27 on Betway