As three European finals take place over the next few weeks, domestic form could impact who comes out on top in each competition.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Do League Winners Dominate Europe?

When we think of the Champions League, we picture elite European teams who are also the top sides in their own leagues. The last Champions League final without traditional elite clubs was in 2003/04, when Jose Mourinho’s Porto faced Monaco.

Every final since has featured a powerhouse of European football. This season will be no different as PSG take on Inter Milan. Although both of them are successful in their own leagues, one factor sets them apart. 

PSG have won their league title, while Inter haven’t won the Serie A title. Historically, four of the last five Champions League titles have been won by sides that have won their domestic league.

Meanwhile, the situation is slightly different in the other two European competitions. Since these leagues feature smaller clubs, completing a league and European double is rare. In fact, the last side to do it was Porto in 2010/11.

Bayer Leverkusen came close last season before they lost in the final to Atalanta. This season’s finalists won’t have to worry about that as Manchester United and Tottenham are 16th and 17th, respectively, in the Premier League. 

This Europa League final features the two lowest-ranked teams to ever compete since the competition was rebranded. However, it could be argued that their low domestic standings show that they respect this competition. 

Should History Change Bettors' Approach to European Finals?

It’s best to have a cautious approach to the Champions League. With Inter Milan’s ongoing title push, it may be worth not to pick a winner just yet. If Inter don’t win the title, history suggests that PSG will win their first Champions League title.

There is clear evidence in the Champions League that league-winning sides perform better in finals. Since the 2003/04 season, 14 of the 21 Champions League winners have also won their domestic league. History suggests that PSG have a 66% chance to lift the trophy if Inter don’t win Serie A, in addition to their initial favouritism based on recent performances.

The wisest approach would be to see how the Serie A title race unfolds. If Inter secure the title, bettors will have to consider a different approach as a league winner will win either way. The Serie A title race could be decided this weekend, so bettors may not have to wait long. 

The Europa League final will be contested by two sides desperate to win as this competition is their only route into Europe next season. Their domestic form would be discouraging if they were up against a team ranked higher in their league. However, the fact that both teams are struggling in the Premier League makes this final unusual. 

Domestic form hasn’t had a huge impact on the Europa League recently. In fact, four of the last five finals have been won by the side the bookmakers priced as a pre-kick off underdog. Manchester United were on the wrong end of one of those results against Villarreal back in 2021.

Since United are favourites again and underdogs have regularly won Europa League finals, Spurs could be a smart bet for bettors that look for value in Wednesday’s final.

This season's Conference League throws up something new. There has never been an odds-on favourite in the final. Chelsea hold that spot as they prepare to face Real Betis, who sit sixth in La Liga. 

Since this is a relatively new competition, there are few past patterns to consider. However, there is an interesting angle. Two of the three winners finished lower than their opponents in their domestic leagues when they won the title. Based on that, a bet on the underdog certainly wouldn’t be money wasted.