Heidenheim are practically relegated, while Wolfsburg are likely to join them. The closing stages of the season could still prove very intriguing.
| Bundesliga relegation odds | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wolfsburg | 1.44 |
| St. Pauli | 3.50 |
| Mainz | 4.35 |
| Werder Bremen | 5.50 |
| Koln | 6.50 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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The Bundesliga survival race
The bottom of the Bundesliga is extremely tight at present. St. Pauli currently occupy the relegation play-off place, but they are only behind Mainz and Koln on goal difference. Borussia Monchengladbach and Werder Bremen are just a point ahead and will keep a close eye on the teams below them.
Many of the bottom seven will face off against each other before the season concludes. The teams finishing 17th and 18th are automatically relegated. Meanwhile, 16th-place goes into a play-off against the third-placed side from the 2. Bundesliga. Over the past six seasons, the top-flight team have avoided relegation in the play-off. They have been beaten only once in the last 13 years.
Today we’ll take a look at the main contenders in the race for survival and weigh up their chances.
Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg have struggled throughout the 2025/26 season. They have only won one game this calendar year. With several clubs around them still to play, poor form and defensive issues make everything even harder. It’s unlikely that FC Heidenheim will catch them, and reaching 16th place may be equally challenging.
Die Wolfe have lost six of their last seven matches, prompting the return of Dieter Hecking in the hope of a turnaround. With upcoming games against Hoffenheim, Bayer Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern Munich, the weeks ahead will be challenging.
Die Weissgrünen are far from out of the fight, but we can see them facing automatic relegation alongside FCH.
St. Pauli
A difficult spell between September and November put St. Pauli in a very difficult position in the German top flight. At one stage, they lost nine games in a row, and 2026 got off to a slow start. However, Alexander Blessin has managed to turn things around recently. The team are finding form at the right time.
Kiezkicker have only lost one of their last five, securing key wins such as the victory over Hoffenheim. They also face five of the bottom seven in their final nine games, so they have a chance to make things better. Only seven teams have earned more points from the last six games. Yet, an average of 0.96 goals and the lowest xG leave questions unanswered.
Given their recent turnaround in fortunes, the men from Hamburg could do enough to avoid a bottom-three finish.
Mainz
Another team hitting a decent run of form are 15th-placed Mainz. Just six teams have picked up more points than they have in the last 10 matches. They have proven hard to beat. Urs Fischer’s side haven’t won too many, but they have lost just three times since the start of December.
Die Nullfünfer are juggling a Europa Conference League campaign alongside their league fixtures. That makes things even more difficult. That said, they’ve been finding the net more consistently. However, Nadiem Amiri’s recent injury remains a setback. The earlier he returns, the stronger their chances of survival.
We’re backing Mainz to stay up and finish above 16th place. Even if they reach the play-offs, they should be strong enough to see off a second-tier challenger.
Werder Bremen
The big question for Werder Bremen is whether their last two results are a one-off. Wins over Heidenheim and Union Berlin helped their survival push. Yet, they have struggled over the last 10 matches. Die Werderaner also face a tough run of fixtures.
Daniel Thioune will be mindful of what lies ahead, but he can take confidence from those recent results. Despite their league position, they’re not short of quality. Yet, a 13-game winless run has caused real damage. With Mainz and Wolfsburg up next, the rest of March could prove decisive.
Concerns over Werder’s form are understandable given recent months. However, we'd back them to handle the play-offs if they end up there.
Koln
Koln head into the final nine games in 14th place and in the midst of a rough patch. The bookies see them as less likely to be relegated than Bremen, but we’re not so sure. Only three teams have picked up fewer points in the last 10 games, and they’ve only secured two wins in 2026.
Lukas Kwasniok has been under a bit of pressure, and it’s not hard to see why. They also have some difficult ties between now and the end of the campaign. Die Geissböcke have the worst form of any team in the bottom seven, and that could prove costly.
We can see Koln dropping into relegation play-offs come the end of the season. They should have enough to overcome any 2. Bundesliga side and remain in the top flight.