Arteta’s Gunners to end their Premier League runner-up streak
Arsenal have been close to clinching the title for several seasons now. Mikel Arteta and the Gooners expect big things for the club this term - one trophy at the very least.
Arsenal have become known as perpetual runners-up, never quite claiming the top prize. Most fans and pundits expected them to win the Premier League last term or at least run Liverpool close, which wasn’t the case. With new additions to Mikel Arteta’s squad and possibly more signings to come, their chances of challenging for the title this season are high.
However, bookmakers rate the Gunners (3.25) just behind Liverpool (2.75) as the title favourites. It appears that Arsenal are expected to finish the season in second place, yet again, probably a couple of points behind the champions. Having said that, a top-four finish is almost a certainty as there isn’t much value in backing them to secure a Champions League spot (1.18).
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 3.25 | 30.77% |
| Top Four | 1.18 | 84.75% |
| Top Six | 1.08 | 92.59% |
All odds courtesy of Betway, correct at the time of publication. May now differ.
Last season's finish: 2nd
Opening five fixtures difficulty
Difficulty calculated on historical H2H (past six league meetings) and outright odds
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | Manchester United (A) | 1-1 | 4 |
| 23/08/2025 | Leeds (H) | N/A | 1 |
| 31/08/2025 | Liverpool (A) | 2-2 | 5 |
| 13/09/2025 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 3-0 | 3 |
| 21/09/2025 | Manchester City (H) | 5-1 | 4 |
Apart from Manchester United, Arsenal probably have the toughest opening five fixtures from the traditional top six. The Gunners have to travel to Old Trafford to kick off their league campaign. Although Arsenal have won four of the last head-to-heads, this one could prove to be difficult, especially if the Red Devils can land some of their summer targets.
The best possible fixture is their date with Leeds in Gameweek two. Arteta’s men won 10 of the last 12 meetings with the newly-promoted side across all competitions, with the visitors' last win against the North Londoners coming in 2003. Arteta’s charges also have a better chance of beating Nottingham Forest at home than winning at Liverpool or against Man City.
Player focus
It would be foolish to ignore Arsenal’s new talisman, Viktor Gyökeres. The former Sporting man’s transfer saga ended just in time for him to get some minutes in his new team’s pre-season matches. Although he only got roughly 60 minutes in total, his previous season’s form speaks volumes.
Gyökeres netted 39 goals in 33 league appearances for Sporting. In total, his career in Portugal had 97 goals in 102 games - a staggering record for a centre-forward. Last season alone, his average was 1.25 per 90 minutes. He may not hit this rate in the Premier League, but there’s no doubt that he will be among the top scorers for the club.
With Arsenal scoring the most goals from set-pieces last term, the Swede could generate goals aerially, especially since he won a little more than half of his aerial duels for Sporting (50.7%).
Featured stats
- Arsenal’s 8.80 PPDA (passes per defensive action) last season showcased their most aggressive pressing game under Mikel Arteta’s stewardship. It was Arsenal’s lowest total since the FA Cup-winning 2016/17 (8.26PPDA) campaign under Arsene Wenger.
- Arsenal haven’t lost a league game against ‘Big 6’ opposition since the 2022/23 season, when they were beaten 4-1 by Manchester City at the Etihad. Last season, the Gunners won five and drew five of their matches against the traditional big teams, picking up 20 points. Only Liverpool (21 points) picked up more in those matches. You can bank on Arsenal turning up in the big matches.
Value outright
Backing the Gunners for a top-four finish is almost a certainty, especially after they comfortably occupied second place for three seasons in a row. Opta Analyst’s supercomputer ran 1,000 simulations, and the North London club are 18.7% likely to finish behind Liverpool again, with only the Merseysiders beating those chances (19.5%).
Expecting Mikel Arteta’s men to end as runners-up isn’t a bad option, but there’s not much value in that selection. However, with six new signings and possibly more on the horizon, this could just be the year for Arsenal. They came out on top in 24.3% of the simulations - almost double the percentage of last season (12.2%). This adds to the argument that they could accomplish what they haven’t in over two decades - win the Premier League.
- Best bet: Outright Premier League winner - 3.25 on Betway
Betting profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -7.99 | 18.96 | -11.25 | -21.0% | 49.9% | -29.6% |
| Home | -3.2 | 9.47 | -1.32 | -16.8% | 49.9% | -6.9% |
| Away | -4.79 | 9.49 | -9.93 | -25.2% | 49.9% | -52.3% |
| 2023/2024 | 2.55 | -16.98 | -3.83 | 6.7% | -44.7% | -10.1% |
| Home | 2.68 | -8.47 | 3.08 | 14.1% | -44.6% | 16.2% |
| Away | -0.13 | -8.51 | -6.91 | -0.7% | -44.8% | -36.4% |
| 2022/2023 | 6.30 | -10.29 | -14.04 | 16.6% | -27.1% | -36.9% |
| Home | 2.44 | -3.86 | -12.38 | 12.8% | -20.3% | -65.2% |
| Away | 3.86 | -6.43 | -1.66 | 20.3% | -33.8% | -8.7% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -5.50 | 2.63 | -14.5% | 6.9% |
| Home | -4.93 | 3.81 | -25.9% | 20.0% |
| Away | -0.57 | -1.18 | -3.0% | -6.2% |
| 2023/2024 | -0.40 | -3.72 | -1.1% | -9.8% |
| Home | -1.22 | -1.08 | -6.4% | -5.7% |
| Away | 0.82 | -2.64 | 4.3% | -13.9% |
| 2022/2023 | 6.81 | -10.12 | 17.9% | -26.6% |
| Home | 3.18 | -4.92 | 16.7% | -25.9% |
| Away | 3.63 | -5.2 | 19.1% | -27.4% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of Betway and was correct at time of collection.
Arsenal’s strong form at home should be a major consideration when betting on them. Two seasons ago, their home wins delivered far more return on investment for bettors, but recently, those numbers have dropped. However, backing the Gunners to win their home games still seems to be the best option.
Arsenal drew 14 matches last season. Only Everton shared the points on more occasions. It’s no surprise that backing a draw on the 1X2 market in every match would have returned such a profit.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 45% | 58% | 68% |
| 2023/2024 | 63% | 42% | 76% |
| 2022/2023 | 68% | 55% | 66% |
Arsenal’s attacking output noticeably dipped last season. They scored 32 goals fewer than the season before, and it’s clear they struggled to get going from the first whistle. This could be down to the fact that they didn’t have a recognised centre-forward for much of the latter part of the season. It could also be down to Arteta’s tactics and the fact that opposition have contained the likes of Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard.
However, with a recognised forward now in the squad, their xG could rise up towards the 75 mark seen in the two seasons before last. BTTS is a market that we can explore as it was near 60% last term. They’ve only kept one clean sheet across four pre-season friendlies. This supports the argument that they could be slightly more leaky this season, especially after conceding five more goals last term compared to the previous season.
xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 69 | 59.9 | 34 | 34.4 | +35 | +25.5 |
| 2023/2024 | 91 | 76.1 | 29 | 27.9 | +62 | +48.2 |
| 2022/2023 | 88 | 71.6 | 43 | 42 | +45 | +29.6 |