Our betting expert suggests an already-qualified Argentina to secure another convincing victory against a side that struggles when playing away.
Best bets for Argentina vs Venezuela
- Overs/ unders - over 2.5 goals 1.53 on Betway
- 1x2 - Argentina 1.21 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Julian Alvarez 2.18 on Betway
We expect a 3-0 win for Argentina.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Having secured 11 wins from their 16 CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, Argentina are already en route to defending their title in North America next year. With just two fixtures left, the world champions are unlikely to lose their top spot position.
While Argentina has already qualified, Lionel Scaloni’s side can still influence which other teams join them at the World Cup. They host seventh-placed Venezuela at the Estadio Monumental, who are close to securing a playoff spot.
Currently, the visitors sit in the inter-confederation playoff slot, but Bolivia is just one point behind them. Venezuela, though, have a poor away record, which could be a major factor in this final match.
Probable lineups for Argentina vs Venezuela
Argentina expected lineup: Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Medina; de Paul, Parades, Simeone; Palacios, Almada, Alvarez
Venezuela expected lineup: Romo; Aramburu, Navarro, Angel, Ferraresi; Martinez, Casseres, Herrera; Martinez, Soteldo, Rondon
Argentina’s scoring power
Unsurprisingly, Argentina are the most efficient goalscorers across CONMEBOL qualifying, with 28 goals in their 16 matches. That equates to an average of 1.75 goals per game that increases to 2.12 in front of their home fans.
In their 12 home games against Venezuela, La Albiceleste scored an impressive 44 goals, an average of 3.6 goals per match. Four of Venezuela’s last five away games featured more than three goals.
Meanwhile, three of the host’s last five games at home (60%) produced more than two goals on the day. This is an indication that they could dominate the visitors at home. It’s also worth noting that four of the last five head-to-heads in Argentina produced more than two goals.
- Argentina vs Venezuela Betting Tip 1: Overs/ unders - over 2.5 goals 1.53 on Betway
Away struggles to continue
The world champions are overwhelming favourites to secure another three points on Friday, as they’ve won 16 of the 21 meetings with Venezuela. Moreover, considering La Vinotinto’s poor away form, there is little hope for them in Buenos Aires.
The hosts are unbeaten in their last four against the visitors (three wins, one draw). They're also in great form and haven’t been defeated in any of their last six outings (five wins, one draw). Venezuela are yet to register an away victory in the qualifiers, and their record on the road needs a lot of improvement.
They’re now on a run of six consecutive defeats in all competitions. Having kept clean sheets in six of their last eight matches, it’s reasonable to expect the hosts to do it again this Friday. The last meeting between these sides at this venue ended with a clean sheet for the home side, which is why the hosts are likely to shut out the visitors.
- Alternative: Argentina vs Venezuela Betting Tip 2: 1x2 - Argentina 1.21 on Betway
Major attacking threat
Julian Alvarez has been incredible for the national team in recent appearances. He scored three times in his last five appearances and is a prime candidate to break through Venezuela’s defence on Friday morning.
In the qualifiers specifically, the Atletico Madrid man found the net in two of his last three matches for his country. This includes the only goal in Argentina’s away win to Chile. The champions’ main attacking threat could be him, especially if Scaloni decides to mix up his starting lineup.
- Argentina vs Venezuela Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Julian Alvarez 2.18 on Betway