There is likely value in betting against goals, with PSG’s rock-solid defence expected to come out on top once again in this last 4 encounter.
Best bets for PSG vs Real Madrid
- PSG to Win at odds of 2.27 with BetWinner
- Ousmane Dembele Anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.26 with BetWinner
- Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.39 with BetWinner
PSG will secure another significant win with a 2-0 victory over Real Madrid.
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For more qualitative betting tips, don’t hesitate to check our Bets of the Week predictions page.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
PSG and Real Madrid meet in competitive action for the first time since March 2022, with their 2025 Club World Cup semi-final on Wednesday evening.
Luis Enrique’s PSG side are currently in excellent form. They’ve kept three consecutive clean sheets on their way to the last four, shutting out Bayern Munich and Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami.
The 2024/25 Champions League winners have been very efficient in the tournament so far, but the competition is about to intensify. Although Enrique has rested star striker Ousmane Dembele for much of the competition, they’ll surely rely on him to perform against Real at the MetLife Stadium.
Real Madrid’s path to the last four has been slightly more eventful. Their quarter-final against German giants Borussia Dortmund has ended in a dramatic 3-2 win for Real. Moreover, it culminated in a disappointing red card for new centre back Dean Huijsen, who will sit out the semi-final against PSG.
Real’s lack of depth in central defence is an issue for boss Xabi Alonso. It appears that Tchouameni is the most likely candidate to play central defence alongside Rudiger, with veteran Luka Modric starting in midfield.
Probable lineups for PSG vs Real Madrid
PSG Expected Lineup: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Mendes, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Neves, Ruiz, Vitinha, Doue, Kvaratskhelia, Dembele
Real Madrid Expected Lineup: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Garcia, Rudiger, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Modric, Bellingham, Mbappe, Vinicius Junior
Backing PSG to reach another major final
While PSG will enter this semi-final match without Willian Pacho and Lucas Hernandez due to suspension, they remain the team to beat.
Since PSG are the 2024/25 Champions League winners, they could turn winning big tournaments into a habit. They’ve quietly eased their way into the semi-final stage, having kept three clean sheets in successive games. They achieved this without utilising their star forward, Ousmane Dembele.
Similarly, Real Madrid will be without Dean Huijsen due to suspension, this could force Xabi Alonso to drop Tchouameni back into central defence, with Luka Modric slotting into a defensive midfield berth.
PSG have the third-highest average possession (66.7%) in the tournament. Therefore, they’ll aim to dominate the ball, limiting Real’s explosive stars such as Mbappe and Bellingham.
- PSG vs Real Madrid Bet 1: PSG to Win at odds of 2.27 with BetWinner
Dembele to increase his Ballon d’Or prospects
PSG’s 2024/25 talisman, Ousmane Dembele, is highly expected to come back into the starting XI against Real Madrid. The French international has shrugged off injury concerns to return for the latter stages of the competition.
Dembele came off the bench to score in the final seconds of PSG’s 2-0 quarter-final win over Bayern Munich. It demonstrated that Dembele hasn’t lost any of his sharpness in front of goal, that’s elevated him to potential Ballon d’Or winner status.
The betting markets indicate that he only has a 41.67% chance of finding the back of the net against Real. He had a 53.33% strike rate in this season’s Champions League, and this appears like a decent benchmark for the Club World Cup. Dembele has managed three shots at goal from the bench against Bayern, so we’re backing him to bounce back in this match.
- PSG vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Ousmane Dembele Anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.26 with BetWinner
Goal drought expected
Although this clash features some of the most in-form goal scorers on the planet, we’re going to go against common expectations and tip a low-scoring semi-final here.
For starters, PSG have kept four clean sheets in the tournament and three in their last three games. On top of that, Keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has a save rate of more than 92%.
It’s also worth noting that both teams have overperformed their xG at the tournament. PSG have scored 12 goals with an xG of only 10, while Real Madrid have scored 11 goals with an xG of just 9.6.
The nature of the game is worth noting as well, a shoot-out for a place in the 2025 Club World Cup final. Goals may not arrive as readily as the betting markets indicate.
- PSG vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.39 with BetWinner