Three wins in their last five games have given Exeter some breathing space in League One. However, an FA Cup upset at City seems improbable.
Best bets for Man City vs Exeter City
- Exeter City +4 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 1.61 with BetWinner
- Neither Half (Over 2.5 goals Half Betting) at odds of 2.35 with BetWinner
- Manchester City by 2+ (1st Half Winning Margin) at odds of 2.20 with BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Man City 3-0 Exeter City
- Goalscorers prediction – Man City: Haaland x2, Cherki – Exeter City: N/A
Pep Guardiola’s City do have bigger fish to fry, but the Spaniard often views cup competitions as a chance to tune up his squad. In fact, many of City’s most prolific campaigns in the EPL have happened when they’ve enjoyed deep cup runs.
Guardiola is likely to be pushed to the limit with his central defensive options. Gvardiol is the latest injury casualty for City, with Max Alleyne back in the squad after recall from a loan at Watford. Due to a lack of attacking alternatives, Erling Haaland could start and play at least the opening 45-60 minutes here. Back-up keeper James Trafford should also start with Gianluigi Donnarumma rested on the bench.
Exeter will be heavily backed by a sell-out away end of 7,800 supporters. It’s the Grecians’ first competitive meeting with Manchester City, so they’ll be desperate to make their mark at the Etihad Stadium.
Visiting boss, Gary Caldwell, has overseen a fruitful festive period for the Grecians. They’ve won four and lost three of their seven League One games in December. Their hard-fought draw at promotion hopefuls Huddersfield underlined their willingness to dig in and scrap for results. They’ll need this in abundance on Saturday afternoon. With Exeter only three points above the League One drop zone, survival remains their main aim of the season.
Probable lineups for Man City vs Exeter City
Manchester City expected Lineup: Trafford, O’Reilly, Lewis, Ake, Khusanov, Nunes, Gonzalez, Savinho, Foden, Cherki, Haaland
Exeter City expected lineup: Whitworth, Niskanen, Sweeney, Fitzwater, Swinkels, Cole, Brierley, Aitchison, McMillan, Wareham, Magennis
Backing the Grecians to avoid a loss by four or more goals
Manchester City dominated their Manchester neighbours, Salford City, 8-0 in the 3rd round last season. However, that is an isolated result when it comes to City’s past results in the FA Cup against teams of Exeter’s calibre.
In the 5th Round last season, Pep Guardiola’s men defeated Exeter’s bitter rivals, Plymouth Argyle 3-1. In the previous round, City could only beat League One Leyton Orient by a one-goal margin.
Given that Exeter have conceded just 23 goals in 24 League One games, the Grecians are clearly difficult to break down. That backline will be pushed to the limit on Saturday. Nevertheless, there’s value to back Exeter to avoid a defeat by four or more goals, based on City’s recent results against comparable opposition.
- Man City vs Exeter City Bet 1: Exeter City +4 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 1.61 with BetWinner
Neither half to feature three or more goals
With Manchester City losing more senior players in the last couple of weeks to injury, Guardiola will be anxious to win with minimal trouble here.
That’s why we’re backing the game not to feature three or more goals scored in either half. The betting markets suggest a very low 38.46% probability of this happening. Only 20% of Man City’s games have featured five or more goals this season. None of Exeter’s League One games have featured five or more goals.
There’s always a chance that City will dominate. However, they’ll want to get through without any dramatics this time.
- Man City vs Exeter City Bet 2: Neither Half (Over 2.5 goals Half Betting) at odds of 2.60 with BetWinner
City to end the contest early with two first-half goals
With Erling Haaland potentially starting against the Grecians, Guardiola may ask his team to push hard in the opening 20 minutes and grab a goal or two to break Exeter’s resistance.
It’s also worth noting that 70% of City’s home games this season have featured two or more first-half goals. We can back City scoring twice against third-tier opposition in the first 45 at a probability of only 47.62%. It’s our top value bet from our trio of Man City vs Exeter City predictions.
- Man City vs Exeter City Bet 3: Manchester City by 2+ (1st Half Winning Margin) at odds of 2.35 with BetWinner