Arsenal moved 6 points clear at the top of the EPL after winning at Bournemouth. Liverpool travel to the capital aiming to solidify a top 4 spot.
Best bets for Arsenal vs Liverpool
- Draw or Liverpool (Double Chance) at odds of 2.33 with BetWinner
- Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.74 with BetWinner
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.72 with BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool
- Goalscorers prediction – Arsenal: Gyokeres, Saka – Liverpool: Ekitike, Wirtz
The Gunners fought hard to secure their latest 3-1 EPL win at Bournemouth. Midfielder Declan Rice scored a brace in the second half to secure victory. Fortunately for Mikel Arteta, many of his players have recovered from injury. Only Max Dowman and Cristhian Mosquera are sidelined, with Riccardo Calafiori a doubt for this match.
Arsenal have won only 11 of their last 46 competitive meetings with Liverpool. In fact, the Gunners have only won one of their last eight match-ups with the Reds.
Liverpool looked on course for another hard-fought away win at Fulham prior to Harrison Reed’s last-gasp heroics. The Reds are still in fourth place, three points behind fifth-placed Chelsea.
Arne Slot’s injury list at Anfield is currently much longer than Arteta’s. Isak, Gomez, Endo, and Leoni are missing, with Salah away on AFCON duty with Egypt.
Probable lineups for Arsenal vs Liverpool
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, Hincapie, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard, Trossard, Saka, Gyokeres
Liverpool expected lineup: Alisson, Bradley, Robertson, van Dijk, Konate, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Wirtz, Ekitike
Boldly betting against the league leaders
With Arsenal six points clear at the Premier League summit, it seems strange to consider betting against the Gunners. However, there’s value in backing the Draw/Liverpool in the Double Chance market.
As mentioned, Arsenal have won just 24% of their last 46 meetings with Liverpool. Moreover, there have been signs that Arne Slot has arrested the Reds’ slide in recent weeks. Liverpool have picked up 11 points from their last five games.
A draw wouldn’t necessarily be a bad result for Arsenal. It would keep Liverpool 14 points adrift with more than half a season played. The worst-case scenario would be that Arsenal’s lead to Man City is reduced to four points, which is still reasonable.
At a probability of 43.48% to back a draw or away win, this offers more value than blindly backing the Gunners.
- Arsenal vs Liverpool Bet 1: Draw or Liverpool (Double Chance) at odds of 2.33 with BetWinner
Huge value on both teams finding the net
Examining the historical data, the odds on both teams scoring in this game offer immense value. In fact, this is comfortably the value bet from this trio of Arsenal vs Liverpool predictions this week.
Both teams have scored in 70% of their last 46 competitive meetings. Arsenal have only kept a clean sheet in 13% of those matches, too.
Although it’s important to recognise Arsenal’s tight defensive record at home, both teams have scored in 50% of their home games. Liverpool have also netted an average of 1.70 goals per away game this season. Therefore, it’s unsurprising to be able to back both teams to score at a probability of only 56.50%.
- Arsenal vs Liverpool Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.74 with BetWinner
Backing four or more goals
Four of the last eight EPL meetings between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium have featured four or more goals. The Gunners have scored nine goals in their last three EPL games, and Liverpool have netted four times in their previous three league games. Historically, 43% of their last 46 competitive meetings have featured four or more goals.
The betting markets currently suggest there’s only a 38.17% chance of it occurring on Thursday night. This factors in Liverpool’s stuttering forward line of late, but they did manage two goals at Fulham last weekend. Hugo Ekitike’s return for Thursday’s game should also give the Reds more of a focal point.
- Arsenal vs Liverpool Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.72 with BetWinner