Our betting expert expects a competitive affair at the Emirates to see the visitors earn a point with Morgan Rogers on target.
Best bets for Arsenal vs Aston Villa
- 2nd Half - Draw or Aston Villa at odds of 1.91 on BetWinner
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88 on BetWinner
- Morgan Rogers to score anytime at odds of 4.75 on BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa
- Goalscorers prediction - Arsenal: Bukayo Saka - Aston Villa: Morgan Rogers
These clubs have already met this month, with Aston Villa winning 2-1 in Birmingham 24 days ago. Arsenal have responded well to that setback, as they've been victorious in all five matches since then. However, they needed penalties against Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup.
After a 2-1 win at Chelsea on Saturday, Villa have forced their way into the title race. That was their 11th straight victory in all competitions, with eight of those wins coming in the Premier League. However, Unai Emery’s side are still three points behind the Gunners ahead of this game.
Probable lineups for Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly, Zubimendi, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Jesus, Martinelli
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Bogarde, Konsa, Lindelof, Maatsen, Onana, Tielemans, Sancho, Rogers, McGinn, Watkins
Gunners to struggle after the break
Emery rang the changes to inspire a stunning turnaround in Villa’s weekend clash with Chelsea. The visitors had hardly been in the game until a triple substitution in the 59th minute. Ollie Watkins was among the players introduced, with the England forward scoring both goals for the Villans.
That wasn’t the first time Villa have been much better after the break this season. They’re yet to lead at the interval on their travels in the Premier League this term. However, they’ve scored 10 times and conceded just three goals in the second half.
Arsenal have let in three of their total home league goals after the interval. They’ll also have bad memories from this particular fixture, as Villa successfully drew 2-2 at the Emirates last term.
The previous meeting in North London also saw Villa score twice late on to win 2-0 in 2023. Given recent history, backing Villa to shine in the second half again offers value.
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa Bet 1: 2nd Half - Draw or Aston Villa at odds of 1.91 on BetWinner
Top-of-the-table clash to feature few goals
Villa have a couple of notable suspensions, but there are still fresh players to field. Watkins should return to lead the line, while Amadou Onana will have a crucial role to play in midfield. The Belgian will be tasked with protecting the back four.
Despite their stunning run of form, Villa are unlikely to show ambition in the beginning. Arsenal may need to be patient, and they haven’t scored more than twice in any of their last six league games.
56% of the Gunners’ Premier League fixtures this season have finished with under 2.5 goals. They have allowed just 10.6 xG so far, which is by far the best record in the English top flight.
With Gabriel Magalhaes fit again, Arsenal should start with their first-choice centre-backs. Backing another low-scoring Gunners match seems to offer value.
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88 on BetWinner
Rogers to strike again for in-form Villa
Given their opponents’ solid defence, it’ll be challenging for Villa to create many clear chances. However, that hasn’t stopped them winning matches during this extraordinary run. Emery’s side have relied on their ability to shoot from range, with Morgan Rogers often the star of the show.
The Englishman has registered six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, including a number of stunning goals. Rogers scored from range in Villa’s wins over Leeds, West Ham, and Man Utd.
The 23-year-old has an average of 1.8 shots per game and a goal every 230 minutes in the English top flight. Those numbers have improved as the season has progressed, and he has been key to Villa’s charge up the table. Based on current form, backing Rogers to score anytime at 21.1% implied probability looks good.
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa Bet 3: Morgan Rogers to score anytime at odds of 4.75 on BetWinner