Coming into the final match of South American qualifying, both Chile and Ecuador are tied on 25 points. A winner in today's match goes to the World Cup and both do if they draw.
After giving itself a three-point cushion over Uruguay with a home win in Quito on Friday, Ecuador will aim to snag at least a point on the road when it faces Chile in Santiago on Tuesday evening.
Chile, on the other hand, was well on its way to securing a ticket to Brazil when it opened up a 3-0 lead on the road against Colombia. But a catastrophic collapse in the second half saw the sides draw 3-3 and blow the Chileans' opportunity to directly qualify.
The home side is expected to deliver at home where it has been strong (5-2-0) and is paying 2.50 to win outright. I do like the Chileans to win despite the abundance of collusion rumours milling about as both teams are able to qualify off a draw. The halftime/fulltime makes that an attractive 3.45.
With quality like Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez in the lineup and a desire to make up for Friday's embarrassment in Bogota, the hosts look good here.
The favoured result by bookies worldwide is naturally the tie. William Hill has a draw in Estadio Nacional listed at 1.61.
The visitors come in at a huge 9.50 to win outright. I don't expect a win, but they did defeat Chile 3-1 in their prior qualifying match. The Ecuadorians are also used to much higher altitude conditions, and with Santiago only being 520m above sea level, the air will have no bearing on the match.
In addition, Ecuador has a six-goal advantage over fifth-place Uruguay. So even if it loses by one or two goals, Uruguay would have to blow out Argentina to catch up to either Andean nation.
The both teams to score pick is at 2.05, which is much better than the under 2.5, currently sitting at 1.61.