Our betting expert expects the home team to claim a solid victory, with second-half goals to see them over the line.
Best bets for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
- Real Madrid to win to nil at odds of 2.50 on Betway
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.67 on Betway
- Second half - Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.65 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid have been playing catch-up on Barcelona throughout the winter. They have an opportunity to take the top spot on Saturday night, with their rivals not in action until Monday.
A seven-game winning run in La Liga has helped Los Blancos close the gap. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side head into this match following a 2-0 win at Valencia last weekend.
Real Sociedad also made a coaching change at the turn of the year. Pellegrino Matarazzo has made a brilliant start, with the Basques taking 14 points from his six matches in charge. The American has also guided La Real into the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Asencio, Jimenez, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Real Sociedad expected lineup: Remiro, Gomez, Martin, Zubeldia, Aramburu, Gorrotxategi, Turrientes, Soler, Marin, Oyarzabal, Guedes
Los Blancos to keep it tight
While they’ve been vulnerable in some recent cup matches, Real Madrid have mostly defended well in La Liga. Since losing to Celta Vigo, they’ve conceded just three goals across seven straight league victories. Los Blancos boast the joint-best defensive record in the Spanish top flight, conceding an average of 0.78 goals per game.
They kept it really tight last Sunday, allowing only 0.44 xG in a 2-0 win against Valencia. Thibaut Courtois did not need to make a save at any point in the game. Real Madrid also allowed just 0.57 xG in a 2-0 win against fourth-placed Villarreal a fortnight prior to that.
Real Sociedad are at a disadvantage due to a quick turnaround. This match is taking place 72 hours after their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg against Basque rivals Athletic Club. That adds weight to backing the hosts to win to nil again.
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Bet 1: Real Madrid to win to nil at odds of 2.50 on Betway
Low-scoring Real Madrid trend to continue
Under 3.5 goals has been a winning bet in nine of the last 10 Real Madrid matches in La Liga. Unlike in the Champions League, they tend to come up against more conservative opponents. That has contributed to some tight matches.
At times, Arbeloa has opted for a more cautious midfield than we saw under Xabi Alonso. Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga both started at Mestalla a week ago. A repeat is expected here, with Jude Bellingham still sidelined.
While Matarazzo has got Real Sociedad playing with more quality, he has been pragmatic at times too. The visiting boss is unlikely to risk a heavy defeat that might burst his team’s current bubble. That points to his side dropping a bit deeper and trying to strike on the break.
Seven of the last nine league games involving La Real have ended with three or fewer goals. Backing a repeat seems sensible, with an implied probability of 60%.
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.67 on Betway
Visitors to tire after the break
Playing local rivals Athletic in a Copa del Rey semi-final is a massive deal for Real Sociedad. They are likely to go all out in that tie, and there’s a risk of them suffering a cup hangover three days on.
The Basques are not in Europe this season, so squad depth is limited. A strong lineup is still expected, but they’re likely to tire against a Real Madrid side that had a free midweek.
Since the change in coach, Los Blancos have thrived in the second half. Under Arbeloa in La Liga, they’ve scored seven times after the break, conceding just once. Only one of their eight league goals under the 43-year-old has been scored in the first half.
Given that trend, backing the hosts to win the second half looks like a smart bet.
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Bet 3: Second half - Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.65 on Betway