6 Teams Worth Backing in Europe With Little to Play For Domestically

With domestic seasons nearly over for Tottenham, Manchester United, Eintracht Frankfurt, PSG and Rangers, can they still pose a threat in Europe?

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Do Teams Become More Dangerous in Europe When Domestic Focus is Gone?

It’s a perfectly legitimate question to ask, as several teams have little left to play for in their respective domestic leagues.

In the Europa League, Manchester United and Tottenham are both stuck in mid-table Premier League positions, with no chance of even clinching a top-half finish, let alone qualifying for Europe.

In fact, winning the Europa League may be the only route to European football next season for both United and Spurs. A triumph would secure them direct entry into next season’s Champions League and help right some of the wrongs of their dreadful Premier League campaigns.

The same can be said for Glasgow Rangers, who are certain to finish runners-up to Celtic in the SPL. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt are also way off the pace near the top of the Bundesliga.

It’s a similar story for two of the Champions League quarter-finalists too. Arsenal are now 11 points adrift of Premier League leaders, Liverpool, with the title now seemingly out of reach. Meanwhile, PSG have already clinched their 11th Ligue 1 title in 13 seasons, boasting a staggering 22-point gap and remaining unbeaten.

Both Arsenal and PSG have already proven they can be dangerous opponents when their focus is solely on the Champions League. The Gunners thrashed Real Madrid 3-0 in the first leg of their quarter-final, while PSG also opened up a 3-1 first-leg lead against Aston Villa.

Does History Suggest Domestic Form Doesn’t Predict European Success?

Looking at the list of recent Champions League winners, domestic form appears to be an indicator of European success.

The Champions League winners of the last three seasons have also gone on to win their respective domestic leagues. In the last seven years, only Real Madrid (2017/18) and Chelsea (2020/21) have bucked this trend.

In 2017/18, Real finished third in La Liga, 17 points behind champions Barcelona. In 2020/21, Chelsea scraped into fourth place, 19 points behind champions Manchester City.

It’s a slightly different story when looking at the list of recent Europa League winners. In 2022/23, Europa League winners, Sevilla, finished in the bottom half of La Liga, only nine points above the relegation zone.

The year before, Eintracht Frankfurt also managed to win the Europa League despite finishing only 11th in the German Bundesliga. The trend continues into 2020/21, as Villarreal finished outside of the European qualification places in La Liga when landing the Europa League.

What do these trends tell us? In the Champions League, it appears that the strongest teams always rise to the top. Meanwhile, in the Europa League, teams can have indifferent domestic campaigns and still reign supreme in Europe’s second-tier competition.

Which Underperforming Domestic Teams Are Most Worth Backing in Europe?

Given all the factors above, Tottenham appear to offer the best value in the Europa League outright market at present.

Despite the ongoing speculation surrounding Ange Postecoglu’s future, Spurs seem to be in the favourable side of the draw. They face Frankfurt in the quarter-finals, before a potential semi against Lazio or Bodo/Glimt.

Frankfurt have averaged 1.25 points per game in their last eight Bundesliga games. Lazio have won only two of their last five Serie A games, while Bodo/Glimt’s Eliteserien season is only just getting started.

Although Manchester United impressed by beating Real Sociedad in the last 16, tougher tests lie ahead, with in-form Lyon and potentially Athletic Bilbao in their way.

In the Champions League outright market, backing both Arsenal and PSG could be an option right now. Both teams are well-positioned to lock horns in a potential semi-final, so one of them has a strong chance of at least making the final.

With no critical Premier League or Ligue 1 games on the horizon, both sides can focus all their efforts on a push for the final.