After seven games, the standings leave many teams in a position where they simply have to target victory on Thursday night.
| Europa League final matchday markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Betis vs Feyenoord - Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 |
| Ludogorets vs Nice - Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 |
| Celtic to score over 2.5 goals vs Utrecht | 2.20 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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All to play for on the final Europa League matchday
There was a small tweak to the format ahead of the 2025/26 Europa League. Clubs that finish first and second are now guaranteed home draws in the second legs of all their knockout ties. Meanwhile, a top-four finish ensures home second-leg advantage until the quarter-final stage.
Consequently, even Lyon and Aston Villa, who have already secured a round-of-16 place, will still be motivated. Given none of the six eliminated teams face each other, there’s something at stake in every match.
With goal difference also potentially a key factor, many encounters could feature open affairs. Red Star Belgrade’s home game against Celta Vigo is an example of that. Both sides are guaranteed a play-off place, but will need to win to stand any chance of making the top eight.
Lyon’s home game against PAOK is another where both teams will surely attack. Only three points will absolutely guarantee the French side a top-two finish. Meanwhile, the Greeks cannot afford a draw as they aim to reach the top eight.
Freiburg are currently in third place, and hoping to move above either Lyon or Villa with a win. However, a draw is likely to be enough for their opponents, Lille, to secure a play-off place.
Meanwhile, Celtic, Genk, Porto, and Ludogorets are set to play home matches against already-eliminated opponents. Those four clubs all currently lie right in the mix of either the top-eight or top-24 fixtures. Favourable matchups against potentially demotivated opponents should help them get over the line.
The games that look set to deliver goals
Two of those fixtures involving eliminated clubs look worth backing to produce goals. In the case of Celtic’s clash with Utrecht in Glasgow, the hosts ought to dominate.
The return of Martin O'Neill has motivated the Bhoys. They showed great spirit to draw 2-2 in Bologna last week, despite having Reo Hatate sent off after only 34 minutes.
Utrecht have secured just one point from seven UEL games so far. They’re in the bottom half of the Eredivisie and have kept only one clean sheet across 14 competitive outings. Backing Celtic to score over 2.5 goals is at value with an implied probability of 45.5%.
There’s a similar dynamic at play when Ludogorets host Nice. The Bulgarians are currently one place below O'Neill’s side in 25th, which won’t be enough to advance. However, there are still five teams that they can potentially surpass in the rankings if they win.
That should be the recipe for an open contest against their French opponents. Nice have let in two goals per Europa League game on average, but did win 3-1 last week.
Ludogorets’ matches have seen the joint-most goals in the league phase, with an average of 3.71 per game. That further supports the fact that backing over 3.5 goals offers value in Razgrad.
There is also potential for an all-action affair when Real Betis host Feyenoord. The hosts will almost certainly need to win to secure a place in the top eight. Likewise, Robin van Persie’s team need three points to stand any chance of making the top 24.
Betis are the clear favourites, but they could be missing as many as eight players due to injury. That will boost Feyenoord’s confidence, who scored three goals against Sturm Graz last week. Backing over 3.5 goals is enticing, and that bet has been successful in four of the Dutch club’s last six games.