The Bees’ away form has been inconsistent in 2025/26, but they have won three of their last four visits to Stamford Bridge.
Best bets for Chelsea vs Brentford
- Draw or Brentford (Double Chance) at odds of 2.19 with BetWinner
- Brentford (1st goal) at odds of 2.73 with BetWinner
- Igor Thiago Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 2.75 with BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Chelsea 2-2 Brentford
- Goalscorers prediction – Chelsea: Pedro, Palmer – Brentford: Thiago, Schade
Chelsea host Brentford in a west London derby this weekend. A win for the Blues would see them get ahead of the Bees in the EPL table.
Liam Rosenior’s men have had a busy week, losing 3-2 on Wednesday night in their EFL Cup semi-final 1st leg with Arsenal. Liam Delap missed the game due to illness, but the Blues are hopeful the former Ipswich powerhouse will be available to face Brentford.
Chelsea’s injury list is finally starting to decrease, with only Romeo Lavia and Levi Colwill missing from the senior squad at present. However, they need to improve their home form, as they only average 1.5 points per game.
Keith Andrews is having a remarkable debut season as manager. Many pundits tipped the first-time boss to struggle to replace Thomas Frank at Brentford. However, the Irishman has proved equally pragmatic, cultivating a direct, powerful side that’s capable of scoring anywhere in the EPL.
Their home form has been the bedrock of their success so far this season. They’ve averaged just 0.90 points per away game in 2025/26. Yet the short trips to Stamford Bridge have been no issue in recent years, with a 75% win rate there since April 2022.
Probable lineups for Chelsea vs Brentford
Chelsea expected lineup: Sanchez, Cucurella, Gusto, Chalobah, Fofana, Fernandez, Caicedo, Neto, Pedro, Palmer, Delap
Brentford expected lineup: Valdimarsson, Ajer, Kayode, van den Berg, Collins, Yarmolyuk, Janelt, Jensen, Ouattara, Schade, Thiago
Backing the Bees to secure a point at least
Given Brentford’s stunning start to the 25/26 EPL season, it’s currently difficult to bet against them. They are the league’s fourth-highest scorers, scoring one more than Saturday’s hosts, Chelsea, across their 21 league games.
The Bees have embraced playing at Stamford Bridge in recent years, with three wins across their last four short matches. As a matter of fact, Chelsea have won only one of their last eight meetings since April 2022.
Before this, the Blues had won seven of their last eight competitive meetings, dating back as far as November 1946. This reflects Brentford’s meteoric rise in recent seasons. Moreover, four of their last eight meetings have ended in a draw. That’s why we’re happy to cover an away win and a draw in the Double Chance market at a probability of 46.51%.
- Chelsea vs Brentford Bet 1: Draw or Brentford (Double Chance) at odds of 2.19 with BetWinner
Value on the visitors to score first
Chelsea have fallen behind in four of their last five matches. Meanwhile, Brentford have scored first in five of their last six games. Therefore, it’s surprising to be able to back the Bees to score first on Saturday at a probability of just 37.03%.
With the Blues likely tired after a big effort in the EFL Cup on Wednesday night, Brentford will be fresh and back themselves to score. Chelsea’s young but talented side could be vulnerable to the Bees’ direct approach.
This selection leans on the likelihood of there being a hangover from Chelsea’s loss to Arsenal on Wednesday. It may take time for Liam Rosenior’s approach to yield a result.
- Chelsea vs Brentford Bet 2: Brentford (1st goal) at odds of 2.73 with BetWinner
Further value on backing Brentford’s goal machine
Brentford’s 24-year-old Brazilian striker Igor Thiago has been a revelation so far this season. He’s scored 16 goals in 21 EPL appearances. He’s comfortably the second-highest scorer in the division, six ahead of the third-highest scorer, Antoine Semenyo.
Thiago is currently scoring at a strike rate of 82% per 90 minutes. His shot-to-goal conversion rate is an incredible 32%. That’s significantly higher than Erling Haaland (24%) and Antoine Semenyo (20%).
The betting markets indicate Thiago only has a 38.17% chance of scoring against Chelsea. That’s despite his stunning form and the fact that he’s scored five goals in his last two games. This seems like another pure value play on a player who’s become Brentford’s main player.
- Chelsea vs Brentford Bet 3: Igor Thiago Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 2.75 with BetWinner