Our betting expert expects this match to be tied at halftime, and feature only one goal by the end.
Best bets for Villarreal vs Juventus
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.82 on BetWinner
- Both teams to score - No at odds of 1.98 on BetWinner
- First-half result - Draw at odds of 2.15 on BetWinner
Villarreal are expected to win 1-0 against Juventus.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Both sides are aiming to secure their first victories of this Champions League campaign. Villarreal's 1-0 loss to Tottenham on Matchday 1 happened only because of a costly mistake made by their goalkeeper, Luiz Junior. Meanwhile, Juventus began their campaign with a remarkable 4-4 draw at home to Borussia Dortmund.
Igor Tudor’s side have also made an unbeaten start in Serie A. However, they are likely disappointed as they drew their last two fixtures against Verona and Atalanta.
Villarreal have been the more impressive side over the last two weeks. They’ve won all three La Liga games since their trip to London, having defeated Osasuna, Sevilla, and Athletic Club.
Probable lineups for Villarreal vs Juventus
Villarreal expected lineup: Junior, Cardona, Marin, Veiga, Mourino, Moleiro, Partey, Comesana, Buchanan, Pepe, Mikautadze
Juventus expected lineup: Di Gregorio, Kalulu, Bremer, Kelly, Cambiaso, Thuram, Koopmeiners, Mario, David, Yildiz, Openda
Few goals at the Ceramica
Villarreal spent just over €100 million in the summer transfer window, as improving their defence was a clear priority. They appear to have managed that, with the additions of Rafa Marin, Santiago Mourino, and Renato Veiga.
They currently boast the joint-best defensive record in the Spanish top flight, with only five goals conceded in seven matches. Following that early mistake, they also played a tight game against Spurs, as they’ve allowed just 0.54 xG in an even encounter.
Although they have talented attackers, they are currently struggling due to recurring injury problems for forwards Ayoze Perez and Gerard Moreno.
Those factors suggest a low-scoring contest at the Ceramica. There is value in backing Under 2.5 goals with an implied probability of 56.3%. That has been a winning bet in four of the last six Juventus matches.
- Villarreal vs Juventus Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.82 on BetWinner
Juve’s Matchday 1 thriller unlikely to repeat
Juve has had an inconsistent season, having played games that ended 4-3 and 4-4 sandwiched between several low-scoring fixtures. However, the underlying data from those seemingly open contests suggested a slightly different performance.
Both sides created under one xG in Juve’s 4-3 triumph over Inter in the Derby d'Italia. Meanwhile, their Champions League clash with Dortmund was defined by some excellent strikes from relatively far out. Their exciting match in Turin saw eight goals, but the xG total was just 3.62.
With Villarreal favouring a counter-attacking style under Marcelino, this could be a good deal tighter. A draw would be a reasonable result for the visitors, and this is unlikely to be as exciting as that thriller from two weeks ago.
- Villarreal vs Juventus Bet 2: Both teams to score - No at odds of 1.98 on BetWinner
All square at the break
Villarreal have played quite cautiously in their toughest matches this season. They failed to score against Atletico Madrid and Spurs, but scored a late goal to beat Athletic 1-0 on Saturday. Those fixtures produced just four goals in total.
With several attacking selection issues, Marcelino is unlikely to instruct his side to take early risks in this match.
Four of Juve’s six competitive fixtures this term have been tied at the interval. Even their eight-goal encounter against Dortmund was goalless after 45 minutes, with Tudor’s side frequently playing more cautiously in the first half.
This game might feature a similar scenario. You can back this game to be tied at half-time with an implied probability of 46.5%.
- Villarreal vs Juventus Bet 3: First-half result - Draw at odds of 2.15 on BetWinner