Best Bets for Tusker FC vs Sofapaka
- Tusker to open their campaign with a 75% win probability.
- At least two goals to be scored in the match between Tusker and Sofapaka, Over 1.5 goals @1.25 with a 65% probability.
We are tipping Tusker FC to secure a 2-0 victory over visiting Sofapaka on Saturday evening.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Tusker FC will start their FKF Premier League campaign on Saturday evening at Kenyatta Stadium, Machakos against Sofapaka. The Brewers started last season well but lost their ground and managed to finish second on the log, losing the title to Gor Mahia who secured their 21st title.
Charles Okere will lead Tusker to their new campaign after he replaced Robert Matano who was sacked by the club at the end of the season. Matano, who has been since 2012 led Tusker to a second finish with 65 points, eight behind holders Gor Mahia. He helped Tusker win the KPL title three times, 2012, 2021/22 and also the 2022/23 campaigns.
Meanwhile, Sofapaka survived relegation last season as they beat Naivas 1-0 in both legs of KPL promotion/relegation encounter. Batoto ba Mungu managed to finish 16th on the log with 36 points, just four above Muhoroni Youth who faced the axe at the end of the campaign.
Tusker to collect maximum points against Sofapaka
Sofapaka's record against Tusker has been notably poor in recent years. In their last 12 matches in the FKF Premier League, they haven't managed to secure a single victory. Out of these encounters, Sofapaka has lost eight games and drawn the remaining four.
This extended period of struggle highlights a significant challenge for Sofapaka when facing Tusker. Their only win over Tusker came way back in 2018 during the GOTV Shield, making it a rare bright spot in an otherwise difficult series of fixtures.
Last season, Tusker had an impressive run in the FKF Premier League, achieving 21 wins and losing only 7 matches. Their performance was strong, although Gor Mahia edged them out slightly with one more win, finishing the season with a total of 22 victories.
However, Gor Mahia's advantage came with a lower loss count, as they only lost 3 matches throughout the season. In contrast, Sofapaka faced a challenging season. They struggled throughout and ended up losing 16 of their matches.
Despite their efforts, they could only secure 9 wins in the entire season, which highlighted the tough times they faced compared to the stronger performances of teams like Tusker and Gor Mahia.
Tusker to keep a clean sheet against Sofapaka
In their head-to-head encounters over the last six matches, Tusker has shown a dominant defensive record against Sofapaka, conceding only once. Sofapaka has managed to score just a single goal across these encounters, while Tusker has found the net in all but one of these games.
Given this trend, it seems likely that Tusker's strong defense will continue to hold firm. Thus, predicting that both teams will not score in their upcoming match appears reasonable, considering the previous head-to-head results where Tusker's defense has largely kept Sofapaka at bay.
Goals, Tusker vs Sofapaka to produce at least 2
In the last five matches between Tusker and Sofapaka, at least two goals have been scored in three of them. The most recent encounter ended with a 3-1 victory for Tusker. Given this trend, it's very likely that the Over 1.5 goals market will be a good bet for their upcoming match.