Spain vs Georgia Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Spain vs. Georgia
- Spain/Spain half-time/full-time with odds of @ 1.61 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 60.2%/64.5%.
- Spain to score over 2.5 goals with odds of @ 2.50 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 50%.
- Pedri to score anytime with odds of @ 1.13 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 21.1%.
Spain are predicted to win this match by a scoreline of 3-0.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Spain, arguably the most impressive team of the group stage, face Georgia in the round of 16 on Sunday. Georgia staged one of the great Euros shocks by beating Portugal on Wednesday, advancing to the knockout rounds in their first ever appearance at a major tournament.
Playing in Cologne, Spain couldn’t have wished for a more favourable opponent. They topped the group with a game to spare, allowing them to rest many of their starters on matchday three.
Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have been thrilling to watch through the opening round of the competition. The Spanish defence has secured three consecutive clean sheets, with Rodri controlling the games from central midfield.
Georgia have been a great story. Their performances have been entertaining, fearless, and ultimately impressive. However, they are overmatched against Spain from a talent perspective, and this will be a much sterner test than the one an already-qualified Portugal posed on Wednesday night.
Probable Lineups for Spain vs. Georgia
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Spain probable XI:
Simon; Carvajal, Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams.
Georgia probable XI:
Mamardashvili; Kverkveliya, Kashia, Dvali; Kakabadze, Chakvetadze, Kochorashvili, Tsitaishvili; Davitashvili, Kvaratskhelia; Mikautadze.
Spain Control From Early On
Fatigue could be a factor for Georgia here. They invested so much physical and emotional energy in beating Portugal on matchday three. Spain were able to slip into cruise control to beat Albania.
There’s already a massive talent discrepancy between these two teams. Spain also played some brilliant football in their first two matches and were solid in defence. Combine that with being fresher, and this looks like it could be a pretty one-sided affair in Cologne.
We are taking the Spaniards to be leading at half-time and win the match. The odds aren’t massively exciting at 1.66 and 1.55, but there’s still value here. Unless you’re backing Georgia to do something remarkable, the odds are going to be on the short side here.
- Spain vs Georgia Bet 1: Spain/Spain @ 1.61 with 22bet
La Roja Score Three
Spain might have only scored one goal against Italy and one against Albania, but we saw enough from their attack to back them to score three or more on Sunday night.
After all, La Roja generated the second-highest expected goals during the group stage. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams tormented the Croatian and Italian defences, while the midfield was able to control the tempo even against Croatia’s exceptional trio.
Georgia have shown great organisation and grit to make it to the knockout rounds. This seems like a step too far, however, and we think they could be on the end of a relatively heavy defeat by the standards of international knockout matches.
- Spain vs Georgia Bet 2: Spain to score over 2.5 goals @ 2.50 on 22bet
Pedri Nets Third Goal for Spain
Alvaro Morata is the only Spaniard with more expected goals than Pedri so far in Euro 2024. Pedri has played just 130 minutes so far and was left out for the game against Albania.
The Barcelona phenom will return to the XI for this match, enjoying the freedom to get forward from central midfield. He has only scored two goals in his previous 22 caps, which is what gets us such a long price on Pedri finding the net this weekend.
If we’re backing Spain to score a few goals here, though, there’s value taking Pedri at this price. Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have not had too many goal-scoring opportunities so far, as they are frequently positioned in wide areas.
The wingers will create chances, though, and they could fall to Pedri as he arrives in the box in support of Morata.
- Spain vs Georgia Bet 3: Pedri to score anytime @ 1.13 on 22bet