City are unbeaten in their last five competitive meetings with Brentford. Eight of City’s last nine games have seen three or more goals scored too.
Best bets for Manchester City vs Brentford
- Man City – Man City (Half Time – Full Time) at odds of 1.87 with BetWinner
- Both Teams to score (Yes) at odds of 1.79 with BetWinner
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.40 with BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Man City 3-1 Brentford
- Goalscorers prediction – Man City: Cherki, Haaland x2
Manchester City and Brentford face off at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night for a spot at the EFL Cup semi-finals.
Unsurprisingly, City are the heavy pre-match favourites to reach the last four, as they are in fine form ahead of this contest. They’ve won five of their last six EPL games and are comfortably the league’s top scorers, having scored 38 goals in 16 matches.
While Guardiola is notorious for rotating his squad for the EFL Cup, he also knows when to field his strongest players. With the team just two wins from the EFL Cup final, his starting XI may be stronger than usual. Omar Marmoush away on international duty, so Guardiola could have no choice but to field Erling Haaland.
Brentford have been incredibly inconsistent so far this season. They have drawn just two of their 16 EPL games, so there’s rarely any middle ground in their performances.
They have failed to win three EPL games, but Keith Andrews will view this tie as a risk-free chance to secure silverware. The Bees are unfancied, but a win here moves them to within one more of a Wembley final. Brentford are excellent at scoring from set-pieces, so they may hurt Manchester City. Six of City’s 16 goals conceded in the 2025/26 EPL have been from set plays.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Brentford
Manchester City expected lineup: Trafford, Lewis, Ait-Nouri, Gvardiol, Stones, Ake, Foden, Cherki, Bobb, Gonzalez, Haaland
Brentford expected lineup: Kelleher, Kayode, Henry, Collins, van den Berg, Damsgaard, Janelt, Ouattara, Lewis-Potter, Jensen, Thiago
City to start strongly and build on their advantage
Brentford’s away record in this competition is poor. They’ve lost four of their last five away games in the tournament. Moreover, Manchester City have defeated them six times in their last nine competitive meetings.
City have led at halftime in four of their last five matches. Additionally, the Bees have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games.
Based on the above data, City are likely to win the match and lead at halftime. This provides much better value on a City victory. Since the betting markets indicate there’s only a 51.28% probability of a HT-FT City win, versus a 73% probability of them winning at full time.
- Manchester City vs Brentford Bet 1: Man City – Man City (Half Time – Full Time) at odds of 1.87 with BetWinner
Goalkeeper rotation gives the visitors a chance
Although Manchester City’s defence is much-improved this season, they still concede more than one goal per game on average in the EPL. If Guardiola changes to his side for Wednesday, it could affect their defensive organization again.
Goalkeeper James Trafford may be in line to feature, having played in the previous round at Swansea. He is not quite at the same level as Gianluigi Donnarumma, who has proven to be one of the EPL’s most inspired signings of the summer.
Trafford has conceded 1.33 goals per 90 in a City jersey since he returned from Turf Moor. He’s in the 88th percentile for saves-to-shots faced, but he lacks the commanding presence of Donnarumma. Brentford have also scored in two of their last three visits to the Etihad Stadium.
- Manchester City vs Brentford Bet 2: Both Teams to score (Yes) at odds of 1.79 with BetWinner
Backing this last-eight tie to feature four or more goals
Using data on the attacking output and defensive records of both sides, backing four or more goals to be scored seems logical. City have scored 2.67 goals on average in the EFL Cup, while Brentford average 1.33 goals scored in the same competition.
Although Pep Guardiola will change his starting XI to face the Bees in midweek, they still have plenty of attacking talent. With Omar Marmoush on AFCON duty for Egypt, Erling Haaland may even be selected to lead the line on Wednesday night.
If Haaland is involved, this match is likely to feature plenty of goals. The Norwegian scored another brace on Sunday in City’s comfortable 3-0 win over Crystal Palace.
- Manchester City vs Brentford Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.40 with BetWinner