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Pep Guardiola is set to oversee a major improvement of City this summer. Could this make them title contenders or will their FFP case hit hard?

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Similarities between City’s 2016/17 and 2024/25 seasons

There are striking similarities between City’s latest 2024/25 Premier League campaign and their first year under Pep Guardiola in 2016/17.

City finished third in both seasons and went without a trophy in each campaign. Moreover, they have been forced to watch Liverpool easily win the title this year.

This season’s defensive and offensive statistics are worse than those in 2016/17. Although City have scored 80 goals and allowed 39 in 2016/17, they scored 72 and conceded 44 this year.

City have only conceded more than 44 goals in a Premier League season four times in the last 20 years. With 71 goals scored this season, it’s City’s lowest-scoring Premier League campaign since 2015/16. This highlights some of the apparent issues that Guardiola must resolve in the summer transfer window.

Could a summer rebuild improve City’s defence?

If reports are true, Guardiola could oversee an exodus of up to ten first-team players in the close season. The Spaniard has insisted that he wants a tighter squad, focusing on quality over quantity.

The average age of City’s 2024/25 squad was 27, the fourth-highest in the Premier League. It may not be a coincidence that the sides that finished above them - Liverpool and Arsenal - had lower average ages of 26.6 and 25.6, respectively.

City’s aging midfield has contributed to their poor defensive record, as he’s been too easy to play through at times this season, providing little support to their backline.

In addition to Kevin De Bruyne’s confirmed departure, City could also bid farewell to fellow midfielders Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic as Guardiola seeks to rebuild his engine room.

Dutch midfielder, Tijjani Reijnders, is a top target for City’s midfield. The AC Milan star has scored ten goals in 37 Serie A games this season. Guardiola wants him to play as a forward-thinking option alongside Rodri, who recovered from an ACL injury.

The Spaniard’s absence was hugely felt, and his return is a major reason to have more confidence in City next season. At the time of his season-ending injury, City’s Premier League win rate with him playing was 74.1% compared with just 61.9% without him.

Club Brugge’s promising holding midfielder, Ardon Jashari, is reportedly on City’s shortlist. The 22-year-old was impressive during the Champions League match against City, and the stylish Swiss deep-lying playmaker could be a good long-term pick.

In 2021, Jack Grealish became the Premier League’s most expensive player when he transferred from Aston Villa. It’s fair to say Grealish hasn't made as big an impact at City as he did at his boyhood club.

He wasn’t even part of City’s squad on the final day of the season, underlining Guardiola’s issue with having too many senior players to keep happy. Grealish is likely to be another high-profile replacement this summer. Meanwhile, City look well set in the final third, with Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush offering plenty of firepower.

However, more departures are expected on the defensive side. Kyle Walker could seal a permanent switch to AC Milan, with the Rossoneri having an option to buy in the close season.

Guardiola may even freshen up his goalkeeping options after seven seasons. Brazilian goalkeeper Ederson was linked with a move to Saudi Arabia last year and may attract interest again this summer.

FC Porto’s Diogo Costa would be a good stylistic fit for City, as his ball-playing skills and sweeper-keeper style make him a strong contender.

City’s FFP case - the elephant in the room

Of course, the biggest talking point surrounding Manchester City’s short and long-term future is their ongoing FFP case. The club continues to await the verdict on the 115 charges made against them.

The outcome was originally expected to come in the spring but may roll into the 2025/26 campaign.

The severity of the club’s punishment if they are found guilty of most of the FFP charges against them is still uncertain.

A financial penalty may hit them hard, restricting their transfer budget or even banning them from signing players altogether. Alternatively, a significant points deduction could make relegation an outside possibility.

Nevertheless, Guardiola remains optimistic about the club’s future. His focus on summer recruitment, sandwiched by the small matter of the FIFA Club World Cup, shows he expects things to carry on as normal at the Etihad.