The 32-year-old is in the 96th percentile for aerial duels won and the 98th percentile for clearances in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign.
Premier League Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
Over 2.5 Goals (Chelsea vs Everton) | |
Over 2.5 Goals (Everton vs Ipswich Town) |
Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
James Tarkowski’s Hamstring Injury Could End His Season
Everton’s experienced centre half, James Tarkowski, may have played his final minutes of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign. The former Burnley powerhouse sustained a hamstring injury in the 2-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend.
Having tried to play through the issue, Tarkowski was forced off early in the second half to be replaced by Michael Keane.
Everton and Tarkowski had marshalled Pep Guardiola’s City very well up until his injury. However, the pressure started to show the minute he surrendered to his hamstring strain.
In the remainder of the game, City’s expected goals (xG) soared from just 0.20 goals to 1.90 goals. They also dominated more of the ball, increasing their possession count from 61% pre-Tarkowski’s substitution to 75.6% post-injury.
Even a modest hamstring strain can take three-to-four weeks to repair. With only a month remaining of the season, Everton boss David Moyes may need to cope without Tarkowski for their last five league games.
Analysing Tarkowski’s Impact on the Everton Defence
It’s difficult to overstate Tarkowski’s influence on the Everton backline this season. He ranks in the Premier League’s 98th percentile for clearances. He also features in the 97th percentile for shots blocked, the 96th percentile for aerial duels won and the 85th percentile for completed interceptions.
Despite his age, Tarkowski has been dribbled past just 0.40 times per game this season.
From an attacking perspective, he’s also been the most influential defender for Everton this season. Tarkowski has averaged 0.49 key passes per game, compared with 0.08 for Jarrad Branthwaite and 0.11 for Michael Keane.
From these statistics, it’s clear to see that Tarkowski helps keep the Everton team together.
Why Michael Keane is Unlikely to Plug the Gap in Tarkowski’s Absence
In Tarkowski’s absence, David Moyes turned to Michael Keane to deputise against City. Keane, who is out of contract in the summer, has been a negative influence on this Everton team this season.
In the 11 games he’s played this campaign, the team has shipped 1.59 goals per game. They’ve also kept just two clean sheets in those 11 matches.
Keane is also in the 18th percentile of Premier League defenders for ground duels won this season, averaging just over three per 90 minutes. That’s almost half the number won by Tarkowski (5.97) per 90 minutes.
The issue is that Keane is more of a covering defender than a stopper like Tarkowski. If Moyes picks Keane alongside Jarrad Branthwaite, it’s hard to see the Toffees dominating at the back. Neither player wants to be the commanding presence that Tarkowski offers.
One option for Moyes is to overlook Keane altogether and move Jake O’Brien inside from right back to centre half. This is a position that Moyes publicly admits will be O’Brien’s spot in the Everton team long term.
Even if O’Brien does shift to centre half and Seamus Coleman deputises at full back, the young pairing of O’Brien and Branthwaite is likely to be more vulnerable in Tarkowski’s absence.
Given Everton’s last five games, it’s hard to see their matches finishing with under 2.5 goals very often. The Toffees have managed to score at least once in 11 of their last 13 league games.
Their upcoming opponents are by no means goal-shy either:
- Chelsea away (26th April) – 1.88 goals scored per home game
- Ipswich home (3rd May) – 1.25 goals scored per away game
- Fulham away (10th May) – 1.53 goals scored per home game
- Southampton home (17th May) – 0.76 goals scored per away game
- Newcastle away (25th May) – 2.19 goals scored per home game
Everton are well clear of relegation fears, and the fans are desperate to leave Goodison Park on a high. This, along with Tarkowski’s likely absence, is why we anticipate plenty of goals and entertainment between now and 25th May.