Our betting expert expects a competitive game to end in a low-scoring draw. This result would deliver another blow to Atleti’s slim title hopes.
Best bets for Girona vs Atletico Madrid
- Girona or draw at odds of 2.25 on BetWinner
- Atletico Madrid to score under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.69 on BetWinner
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08 on BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Girona 1-1 Atletico Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Girona: Viktor Tsygankov - Atletico Madrid: Alexander Sorloth
Girona head into this game after a fine 2-1 comeback win away to Real Sociedad. Viktor Tsygankov scored two late goals to cap an excellent second-half performance. That moved the Catalans onto 15 points, but they remain in the relegation zone heading into this match.
Atletico Madrid suffered damaging away defeats against Barcelona and Athletic Club earlier this month. They’ve since bounced back with three straight wins in all competitions.
However, they’ve not been convincing and only saw off struggling Valencia 2-1 at home last weekend. Diego Simeone’s team head into this fixture after a 3-2 Copa del Rey win against fourth-tier Atletico Baleares in midweek.
Probable lineups for Girona vs Atletico Madrid
Girona expected lineup: Gazzaniga, Moreno, Blind, Reis, Martinez, Martin, Witsel, Lemar, Gil, Vanat, Tsygankov
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Ruggeri, Hancko, Le Normand, Pubill, Gonzalez, Barrios, Koke, Simeone, Alvarez, Sorloth
More trouble on the road for Atleti
Atletico Madrid have consistently struggled to pick up enough away points to sustain a title challenge in recent years. That trend has only continued this season. They’ve won just two of their eight away league fixtures.
Simeone’s men average just 1.13 points per game on their travels. Compared to Real Madrid’s 2.00 and Barcelona’s 2.10, their poor away form is clearly doing great damage again.
Los Blancos did drop points on this ground in a 1-1 draw only a few weeks ago. That’s just one of many much-improved performances we’ve seen from Girona in recent months.
They’ve recovered from an awful start, which saw them pick up just one point from their opening five games. Since then, it’s just three defeats in 11 league outings for Michel’s team. They are well-placed to get at least a draw here, with an implied probability of 46.5%.
- Girona vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Girona or draw at odds of 2.25 on BetWinner
Girona’s defence to hold firm
There is a great difference between the number of goals Atletico Madrid score at home and away. They average just 1.00 goals per game on the road in La Liga. That’s compared to 2.44 per 90 minutes at home.
The underlying data points at a similar trend. Atleti have registered 20.3 expected goals in front of their own fans, compared to just 8.0 xG on the road. Heading into Matchday 17, only six teams have created fewer xG away from home.
That will offer encouragement to a Girona defence that has improved significantly. They leaked 15 goals in their opening five matches. However, it’s just 15 goals conceded in 11 outings since then.
Given that, backing Atletico Madrid to score under 1.5 goals looks appealing, with an implied probability of 48.8%. That bet has landed in seven of their eight away league fixtures this term.
- Girona vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Atletico Madrid to score under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.69 on BetWinner
Low-scoring clash expected at Montilivi
Girona typically play on the front under Michel. However, we’ve seen a slightly more conservative approach from the 50-year-old in tougher games of late.
Aside from their low-scoring draw against Real Madrid, they were also minutes away from a 1-1 draw away to Barcelona. Only a stoppage-time goal denied them a point against their Catalan rivals. 67% of Girona’s matches against current top-half teams have produced under 2.5 goals in total.
A repeat looks likely here, especially with Atletico Madrid’s star striker Julian Alvarez in relatively poor form. The Argentina international has only scored twice in his last eight appearances. Just two of his 11 goals in all competitions this season have come away from home.
- Girona vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08 on BetWinner