Our betting expert expects a convincing victory for La Roja, who should start quickly and ease home against limited opponents.
Best bets for Bulgaria vs Spain
- Over 1.5 first-half goals at odds of 2.20 on BetWinner
- Over 2.5 goals for Spain at odds of 1.55 on BetWinner
- Spain to win & over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.34 on BetWinner
Spain are expected to win 4-0 against Bulgaria.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
The road to the 2026 World Cup starts on Thursday for these two nations. Bulgaria reached the semi-finals the last time the competition was held in the United States, but it’s safe to assume there’ll be no repeat this time.
They are a much inferior side these days, and are winless in five matches heading into this daunting task. That run included a 4-2 aggregate Nations League play-off defeat against the Republic of Ireland, as well as draws against Belarus and Cyprus. They were defeated 4-0 by Greece in their most recent friendly.
By contrast, Spain have gone 20 internationals without defeat in regulation time. However, they were defeated on penalties by Portugal in the Nations League final in their last match.
Probable lineups for Bulgaria vs Spain
Bulgaria expected lineup: Mitov, Nedyalkov, Atanasov, A. Petkov, Nurnberger, M. Petkov, Kraev, Gruev, Milanov, Minchev, Despodov
Spain expected lineup: Simon, Carvajal, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella, Zubimendi, Ruiz, Yamal, Pedri, Williams, Torres
Early strikes expected
The gulf in quality between the teams is so great that we should see Spain exert control from the very early stages.
Even against stronger opposition in June, Spain scored twice inside 25 minutes against France. There were also two goals scored in total in the first 30 minutes against Portugal. La Roja have netted their first goal in the 32nd minute or earlier in all of their last seven internationals.
With a tougher match to come in three days away to Turkey, Luis de la Fuente will be keen to take care of business as soon as possible here. He’ll want his side to swiftly build up the kind of advantage that would enable him to withdraw key players in the second half.
- Bulgaria vs Spain Bet 1: Over 1.5 first-half goals at odds of 2.20 on BetWinner
Spain to get back on the goal trail
Having excelled in the final third at Euro 2024, largely thanks to the brilliant wide play of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, Spain kicked on last season. Their attacking threat was constant, and they netted at least twice in all of their final seven Nations League fixtures.
Excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, they scored 2.4 goals per game on average across the 2024/25 campaign. All of their opponents during that period were stronger than the team they will come up against in Sofia this week.
Bulgaria have conceded at least twice in all of their last four internationals. Aside from their heavy loss to Greece last time out, they were also beaten 5-0 by Northern Ireland in the recent Nations League.
Spain are only given an implied probability of 57.8% of scoring three or more goals in this game. Based on the form of the two sides, that outcome seems very probable.
- Bulgaria vs Spain Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals for Spain at odds of 1.55 on BetWinner
A long night in store for the hosts
Bulgaria’s record does not make for any better reading when you look further back. Since a three-game winning streak in 2022, they’ve won just three out of 25 international fixtures.
You have to go back to 2019, and a 1-0 victory over the Czech Republic, for their last win against one of the stronger European sides. Up against the team currently considered favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, only one result looks likely.
La Roja will be eager to start the season by making a statement, and their two key wingers take good form into the game. Williams has started strongly for Athletic Club, scoring and assisting in his team’s opening La Liga fixture. Meanwhile, Yamal has already registered four goal contributions in three Barcelona matches this term.
- Bulgaria vs Spain Bet 3: Spain to win & over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.34 on BetWinner