Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Borussia Dortmund vs Lille
- Borussia Dortmund or Draw and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.15 with BetWinner
- 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) at odds of 2.05 with BetWinner
- Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.78 with BetWinner
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Despite sitting fifth in the French Ligue 1, LOSC Lille finished inside the top eight of the league phase of this season’s UEFA Champions League. Their last-16 opponents, Borussia Dortmund, had to qualify through the play-offs, comfortably brushing aside Portuguese side Sporting.
It has been a remarkably poor domestic campaign for Dortmund so far. Niko Kovac’s men are nine points worse off now than at this stage of last season. It has been four seasons since Dortmund lost nine league games, but Dortmund have already hit that figure with ten games left to play.
It looks like Dortmund’s season now rests on their Champions League campaign. Although it’s still possible to qualify for Europe domestically, BVB fans live for the knockout stages of this competition. They reached the final of last season’s Champions League and eventually lost to Real Madrid at Wembley.
Bruno Genesio’s Lille were in sparkling form during the league phase of the Champions League, winning five and losing only two of their eight games. This included historic wins over Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. This is a remarkable achievement given that Lille entered the Champions League through the third qualifying round in early August.
Lille’s domestic form hasn’t been affected by their Champions League success. In fact, it has motivated the squad to keep pace with the top four in Ligue 1.
They currently sit just five points shy of third-placed Nice and only two points short of fourth-placed AS Monaco in the final Champions League qualification spot. Lille have Ligue 1’s second-best defensive record, although this was tested last week in a 4-1 hammering by the likely champions, PSG.
Probable Lineups for Borussia Dortmund vs Lille
Borussia Dortmund Expected Lineup: Kobel; Couto, Can, Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Gross, Sabitzer, Adeyemi, Brandt, Gittens, Guirassy
Lille Expected Lineup: Chevalier; Meunier, Alexsandro, Diakite, Gudmundsson, Bouaddi, Andre, Haraldsson, Bakker, Angel Gomes, David
Dortmund to be Strong Contenders in the Second Leg
After Dortmund held Sporting to a goalless draw to clinch their place in the last 16, BVB have warmed up well for their first-leg clash with Lille. They thrashed Union Berlin 6-0 on home soil and followed up with a 2-0 win at St. Pauli, maintaining another clean sheet.
Meanwhile, Lille’s final Ligue 1 game before this tie was a 4-1 hammering at Paris Saint-Germain. PSG raced into a four-goal lead inside 37 minutes, with Jonathan David netting a late consolation.
Given the importance of this year’s Champions League campaign to Dortmund, it’s difficult to imagine them being out of the tie for the second leg. Dortmund’s domestic home form has been good, winning almost three-fifths (58%) of their games and losing only two matches.
Meanwhile, Lille have won just four of their 12 away domestic games. Therefore, the first of our Borussia Dortmund vs Lille predictions is for the Germans to avoid defeat and stay in the contest for the return leg at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. We also expect both frontlines to get on the scoresheet.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Bet 1: Borussia Dortmund or Draw and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.15 with BetWinner
Cagey First Half Anticipated
Dortmund have conceded just one first-half goal in their ten Champions League games this season. They have also scored only 44% of their goals in the opening 45 minutes.
As for Lille, they have only scored 41% of their Champions League goals this season in the first half of games. Dortmund typically concede their first goal around the 66th minute.
All of this suggests the first half will be a tightly contested and tense affair. As it’s the first of four halves in the overall tie, neither side will want to give too much away in the opening stages. With a probability of 48.78%, we favour the second half featuring more goals than the first.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Bet 2: 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) at odds of 2.05 with BetWinner
Game Likely to Open Up in the Second 45
Although Dortmund rarely concede in the first half, they have conceded 12 goals in ten Champions League games this season. They have also scored 25 goals in ten games, at an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Lille have averaged just one goal conceded per game this campaign, which was the key factor in their top-eight finish. However, Dortmund have been notoriously prolific in the closing stages of games, scoring nine of their 25 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches.
In fact, 80% of Dortmund’s Champions League games have finished with three or more goals scored. Almost two-thirds (62%) of Lille’s games also finished with over 2.5 goals scored per game.
While first legs are notoriously tight, we expect Dortmund to take control in the second half against Lille. At a probability of just 56.50%, we think this undervalues Dortmund’s attacking output at Signal Iduna Park.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Bet 3: Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.78 with BetWinner