Our betting expert expects a relatively low-scoring game to see action after the break, with Robert Lewandowski securing victory for Barcelona.
Best bets for Barcelona vs Athletic Club
- Athletic Club to score under 0.5 goals at odds of 2.32 on BetWinner
- Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at odds of 1.80 on BetWinner
- 2nd Half - Barcelona at odds of 1.72 on BetWinner
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For more qualitative betting tips, don’t hesitate to check our Bets of the Week predictions page.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Barcelona 2-0 Athletic Club
- Goalscorers prediction - Barcelona: Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal
Barcelona needed the international break more than most teams. They were struggling with injuries and had won just three out of seven in all competitions ahead of their trip to Vigo. However, they performed better in that match, as Lewandowski’s hat-trick led them to a 4-2 victory.
Athletic Club haven’t been in great form either, as they are dealing with many fitness issues, with Inaki Williams being their most crucial absent player. While they have won just three out of their last 13 matches in all competitions, they managed to beat Oviedo 1-0 a fortnight ago.
Probable lineups for Barcelona vs Athletic Club
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Balde, Cubarsi, Christensen, Kounde, E. Garcia, Fermin, Rashford, Olmo, Yamal, Lewandowski
Athletic Club expected lineup: Simon, Yuri, Laporte, Vivian, Gorosabel, Jauregizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, N. Williams, Gomez, Berenguer, Guruzeta
Barca to keep a rare clean sheet
Barcelona have been struggling defensively this season. Hansi Flick’s high line has been exposed, but they have appeared more solid in their last two league games. Barca only allowed 0.7 xG against Elche and 0.6 xG against Celta Vigo.
They may be forced into picking a slightly more conservative midfield in this match. This is because of Pedri’s injury and Frenkie de Jong’s suspension. Eric Garcia could be utilised in a defensive midfield role, and that may offer more protection.
This is unlikely to be Barcelona’s toughest defensive test of the season. Athletic are not playing well and have failed to score in 44% of their competitive matches this term. They have an average of just 0.8 goals per game in away La Liga fixtures.
There is value in backing the visitors to fail to score in this match based on those stats. It can be done with an implied probability of 42.2%.
- Barcelona vs Athletic Club Bet 1: Athletic Club to score under 0.5 goals at odds of 2.32 on BetWinner
Lewandowski to build on Vigo hat-trick
Ferran Torres has often been the preferred striker for Barcelona this season. That was a result of his good form and Lewandowski’s fitness issues. However, the Polish striker is surely now back in favour after scoring three times in their last match.
The 37-year-old also scored and assisted twice for Poland during the international break. He has surely benefited from playing more for his country. Lewandowski should now be fully fit and ready to shine in this game.
Despite relatively limited opportunities, his La Liga record is still positive this season. Lewandowski scores a goal every 65 minutes on average, with a shot conversion rate of 30%. Therefore, he’s worth backing to score anytime, with an implied probability of 55.6%.
- Barcelona vs Athletic Club Bet 2: Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at odds of 1.80 on BetWinner
Hosts to dominate after the break
This will be Barcelona’s first match at Camp Nou in two and a half years. That will give them additional confidence, although only 45,000 fans will attend. Despite playing in other venues so far this term, they boast a 100% home record in La Liga this term.
The overall trend has seen them perform better in the second half. Their first-half goal difference in the Spanish top flight stands at just +3. That’s in contrast to +14 after the interval.
Moreover, 80% of the goals conceded by Flick’s team in La Liga have come before the break. They’re yet to let in a single goal at home in the league in the second half.
Given that, Barcelona seem to offer value in the second-half result market, with an implied probability of 57.1%.
- Barcelona vs Athletic Club Bet 3: 2nd Half - Barcelona at odds of 1.72 on BetWinner