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Midfield matchups, composure in goal and a shot of 'Triple Espresso': 5 things that will decide USWNT-Brazil Olympic Gold Medal match

There's nothing quite like a tournament final, is there? The pageantry, the anticipation, the emotion - it all builds up to one last game. One moment could decide it all. One kick can create a legacy, or erase it.

Over the years, the U.S. women's national team have frequently found themselves in these moments. Saturday's final against Brazil will be the sixth gold medal game for the USWNT (out of eight Olympics in which women's soccer has been contested) and they've won four golds - oh, and add to that the four titles they've won at the Women's World Cup. The history is undeniable: The USWNT has the most Olympic gold and most total medals in the history of the competition, also adding a silver and a bronze.

More often than not, the U.S. has seized the moment. But this one feels different. It many ways, feels more important than ever before.

The final against Brazil, which begins Saturday at 11 a.m. ET at Parc des Princes in Paris, comes just one year after this program's worst-ever World Cup finish, and is the first time the U.S. will play for Olympic gold since London 2012. This team has a chance to reclaim its spot atop the sport.

It won't come easy. Brazil stands in their way, and it means more to them, too. The legendary Marta is getting ready to say goodbye, and she wants to ride off into the sunset with gold around her neck. The Olympic final will mark the 41st meeting between the U.S. and Brazil and second this year. Overall, the U.S. leads the series 32W-3L-5D and has won each of the last seven games, though nine of the last 10 games between the teams have been decided by two goals or fewer.

This will be the third time, in fact, that the U.S. and Brazil meet in an Olympic final. The U.S. defeated Brazil 1-0 in extra time at the 2008 Games in Beijing, and won 2-1 in extra time at the 2004 Games in Greece. It is also a rematch of the March's Gold Cup final, which the USWNT won, 1-0.

That will make Saturday's final even more intense, more emotional, more momentous. But there's still a soccer game to be played.

Who will win? How will they win it? GOAL looks the five things that will decide the Olympic Gold Medal match.

  • Tierna Davidson USWNTGetty

    Fitness concerns

    It was always going to be a problem. Given the short turnarounds and small squad sizes, fitness is a huge challenge for every team in this tournament and, realistically, the USWNT has been fortunate to escape with just a few injuries.

    But what will Emma Hayes squad look like in the final? Who is available, and for how long?

    Hayes has said she wants this team to "suffer" ... and suffer they have. This will be this group's sixth game in 16 days and - and when you factor in the 60 extra-time minutes played in the quarters and semis, it's nearly seven. That's a huge ask for any team but, with Hayes' lack of real rotation, there are going to be some heavy legs on the pitch.

    On the U.S. injury front, Tierna Davidson may be closer to 100 percent, but she probably isn't there yet. Jaedyn Shaw, meanwhile, still hasn't featured in this tournament, which makes it unlikely we see her make an Olympic debut in the Gold Medal game.

    How will the USWNT, and Brazil, cope with the obvious fatigue? Whichever team has more energy will have a huge edge.

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    Too many shots of espresso

    They now have a nickname: Triple Espresso. So, with that burning question answered, we move onto the big one: if you're an opposing team, how do you stop the USWNT's attacking front three?

    That'll be what keeps Brazil boss Arthur Elias awake Friday night as he tries to figure out the best way to cope with the explosive trio of Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson. That trio has combined to score nine goals in these Olympics.

    In fact, each member of that lethal front three has scored three goals this summer. Rodman and Smith either scored or assisted in all of the U.S. group stage games, the first time U.S. teammates had done so in an Olympic group stage since Alex Morgan and Abby Wambach at London 2012. And Swanson has been a dynamic catalyst for that U.S. attack. At any given moment, any one of those three could annihilate a backline.

    It's unfair to boil a game and a tournament down to just one matchup. It feels too simple. But sometimes, it is simple. If Brazil doesn't have an answer for Triple Espresso, they're cooked. And even if they can slow them down, as did Japan and Germany, will it be enough? Rodman and Smith both scored extra-time winners in the knockout stage. Each of the three members of that trio can decide the game.

    In the end, it might just come down to which one.

  • France v Brazil: Round Of 16  - 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup FranceGetty Images Sport

    Managing the emotion

    Finals overflow with emotion, particularly Olympic finals. There's so much at stake at every moment, but it feels even more pressurized this year.

    We'll start with Brazil, who will be looking to send off the legendary Marta with a gold medal. Marta is an all-time great, if not THE all-time great, and everyone in that Brazil team will be desperate to give her the goodbye she deserves. For all of her success, Marta does not have an Olympic gold, just two silvers.

    As for the USWNT, this is about making a statement, a full-blown return to elite status in world soccer. There are expectations, as there always are. And after failing to reach the Olympics Gold Medal game in both 2016 and 2021, and then going home early from last year's World Cup, this group wants to live up to - or even exceed - those expectations.

    This game will be emotional. It will be physical, too. Both teams will need to keep everything in check and play their respective games, despite all of the significance packed into this match.

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  • Naeher USWNT 2024Getty

    The USWNT's saving grace

    Let's talk hypotheticals. Saturday is a tight game, maybe 1-1 or 0-0. The two teams have battled through 120 minutes. Penalties are looming. Nerves are at an all-time high. What can make the difference in those moments?

    Well, for the USWNT, the answer is usually pretty simple: Alyssa Naeher.

    The U.S. hasn't had to survive a penalty shootout under Hayes, who is unbeaten (8W-0L-1D) in her first nine matches with the USWNT - with the first five results coming via shutout, as well as back-to-back 1-0 extra-time wins to reach the Gold Medal match. Hayes is looking to become just the fourth USWNT head coach to win their first major tournament, with Anson Dorrance leading the U.S. to the 1991 FIFA Women’s World Cup, Pia Sundhage leading the Americans to a gold medal at the 2008 Olympics and Jill Ellis helping the U.S. to its third World Cup title in 2015.

    But on the biggest of stages, matches can come down to the tiniest of margins. There's always a possibility that the Olympic final comes down to penalties. And, if it does, there isn't a goalkeeper in the world you'd rather have between the sticks, or at the spot, more than Naeher.

    Her heroics earlier this year were legendary. In both the SheBelieves Cup and Gold Cup, Naeher stopped three Canada penalties and went on to score one of her own. When it comes to those moments, she's simply cold-blooded.

    Even if it doesn't go down to a shootout, Naeher's experience will be key. She's been fantastic this tournament, which will likely be her last major international performance. Naeher will be certainly be hyped up with anticipation, but it's her calm and composure that usually makes all the difference for the U.S.

  • Horan USWNT 2024Getty

    The midfield battle

    Oddly enough, it's fair to say that the USWNT midfield has struggled a bit in the Paris Games, even if it's been substantially better than last summer.

    Is there more to come from Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle and Sam Coffey? There simply has to be as they stare down Brazil's midfield. Brazil's team is loaded with ballers, so much so that even the alternates have been spectacular. Orlando Pride star Angelina was called in for the win over Spain, and she ran the show despite not even originally being in the squad.

    The U.S., however, has the talent advantage. They wouldn't have been able to say the same if the final opponent was Spain, mind you, but this U.S. midfield does have the quality to give Brazil fits.

    It's stunning that neither Lavelle nor Horan have gotten on the scoresheet in the Olympics. Maybe they're saving it all up for the final, where that duo, in particular, will have to dictate the pace of the game from the opening whistle. Months of preparation all come down to one game. Who will step up?

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