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Hugo Broos of South Africa, Adel Amrouche of Rwanda, Eric Chelle of Nigeria and Gernot Rohr of Benin 16-9GOAL GFX
Celine Abrahams

Bafana Bafana’s final gamble: Beat Rwanda in Mbombela and pray Nigeria topples Benin to keep the FIFA World Cup dream alive

South Africa were cruising. Now they’re clinging. A belated points deduction and a goalless draw with Zimbabwe have left Bafana Bafana needing a win over Rwanda in Mbombela and a result from Nigeria against Benin to keep their World Cup dream alive. It’s the final Group C game and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

In a campaign that once promised control, Bafana Bafana now find themselves in a desperate scramble. Tuesday night’s clash against Rwanda in Mbombela is no longer just another qualifier; it’s the final group game and it’s loaded with consequence.

Hugo Broos’ side were sitting pretty until two moments flipped the script. First, a three-point deduction for fielding the ineligible Teboho Mokoena against Lesotho in March. Then, a goalless draw against Zimbabwe on Friday. The result? South Africa now trail Group C leaders Benin by two points and their fate is no longer in their own hands.

Here, GOAL builds up to the much-anticipated FIFA World Cup qualification clash, with South Africans' eyes fixed on the result between Nigeria and Benin.

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  • Hugo Broos, South Africa, October 2025Backpage

    The math that changed everything

    Before the points deduction, South Africa were in control. They had beaten Benin twice, held Nigeria and looked set to finish top of Group C. But the loss of three points changed the entire equation. Now, Bafana sit on 15 points, two behind Benin and just one ahead of Nigeria. Only the group winner qualifies directly for the World Cup, while the four best second-placed teams enter a playoff. That means South Africa must beat Rwanda and hope Benin lose to Nigeria.  

    If Benin draw, then goal difference becomes the decider. Both Bafana and Benin have scored 12 goals, but South Africa have conceded nine to Benin’s seven. If the goal difference is level, goals scored become the tiebreaker. And if that’s also equal, head-to-head favours Bafana, thanks to their back-to-back wins over Benin.

    It’s a complex web of possibilities, and one that underscores how fine the margins have become. A campaign that should have been wrapped up is now hanging by a thread, and South Africa’s fate may be decided not in Mbombela, but in Uyo.      

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  • Rwanda in action against NigeriaFERWAFA

    Rwanda: The final hurdle

    Rwanda may be out of contention, but they’re not out of the fight. In fact, they’re the only team to have beaten South Africa on the pitch during this campaign; a 2-0 win in Kigali that stunned Bafana and gave Rwanda a brief glimmer of hope. That result still stings and Broos will be desperate to avoid a repeat.   

    South Africa will need to start fast, control possession and convert chances, something they struggled with against Zimbabwe. The stakes are too high for hesitation. Rwanda may have nothing to play for in terms of qualification, but pride and revenge are powerful motivators. Bafana must treat this like a final, because in every sense, it is.

  • FBL-WC-2026-AFRICA-QUALIFIER-LES-NGAAFP

    Nigeria vs Benin: The parallel pressure

    While Bafana battle Rwanda, the real drama may unfold in Uyo. Gernot Rohr’s Benin face a formidable Nigeria side that still has a shot at qualification. The Super Eagles sit just one point behind South Africa and three behind Benin, meaning a win could catapult them to the top of the group. For South Africa, the ideal scenario is a Nigeria win. That would leave Bafana needing only a victory to leapfrog Benin and secure top spot. But if Nigeria and Benin draw, the calculators come out and every goal in Mbombela will matter.  

    It’s a surreal situation: South Africa could win and still miss out, or they could qualify thanks to a result in a match they’re not playing. The emotional toll of scoreboard watching will be immense and Broos will need to keep his players focused on the task at hand. They can’t control what happens in Uyo, but they can control how they perform in Mbombela.

  • Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Bafana BafanaBackpage

    Broos’ selection headaches

    Broos has earned praise for building a competitive squad, but his selection decisions ahead of this final game are under the spotlight. Centre-back is a problem area. Mbekezeli Mbokazi is suspended after his red card against Zimbabwe and Siyabonga Ngezana was left out of the squad entirely due to suspension. 

    Up front, Lyle Foster is expected to start despite limping off last time out. If Foster isn’t fit, Evidence Makgopa could be called upon. On the wing, Mohau Nkota is likely to return after being controversially substituted at half-time against Zimbabwe.  

    Bafana need sharpness, creativity and composure in the final third, qualities that have flickered but not fully ignited in recent matches.

  • Ronwen Williams and Hugo Broos, Bafana BafanaBackpage

    A chance to end a 24-year wait

    If Bafana Bafana qualify, it will mark their first successful World Cup qualifying campaign in 24 years. They reached the tournament in 1998 and 2002, and played in 2010 only as hosts. That’s a long drought for a nation with a rich footballing history and passionate support. Tuesday’s match isn’t just about points; it’s about pride, legacy and belief. It’s about proving that South African football can rise again, not through luck or hosting rights, but through merit. 

    The players know what’s at stake. The fans do too. And while the permutations may be dizzying, the mission is simple: win and hope. It’s not the position Bafana wanted to be in, but it’s the one they’ve got. And if they can rise to the occasion, they might just write a new chapter in South African football history.

  • Bafana Bafana, October 2025Backpage

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