Why Now Is The Right Time To Bet on Napoli

It's a testament to strategic planning, revitalised tactical approach, and astute on-field execution. 

A blend of strategic players’ signing over the summer and tactical changes under Antonio Conte has laid a solid groundwork for what could be a season to remember for the 2022/2023 Italian champions. 

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Sitting pretty at the top with 13 points, the Neapolitans have demonstrated a robust defensive setup combined with an adaptable attacking play that is difficult for opponents to destabilise.

For bettors the current state of Serie A presents a unique and compelling opportunity, hinting that now might just be the perfect time to bet on Conte’s men either clinching the coveted Scudetto or solidifying a steadfast position in the top four.

A navigable fixture lists and a mean defence

Napoli's leap to the top of the league is not a fluke, but an outcome of meticulous defensive strengthening. 

For Conte, known for his stringent tactical setups, fortifying Napoli’s defensiveness was paramount. The statistics illustrate this: merely one goal conceded over the past five league matches, and even that came via a penalty. 

In these games, the defence showcased its mettle, reflecting a transformation reminiscent of the sturdy defensive form Napoli exhibited during their title-winning season under Luciano Spalletti.

One cannot overlook the contributions of Alessandro Buongiorno, whose arrival has significantly bolstered Napoli’s backline. As a versatile defender capable of operating both in a central duo or within a three-man defence, Buongiorno has been instrumental since making his debut against Bologna. 

His ability to adapt and enhance the defensive structure has led to immediate improvements, cementing his status as a potential long-term defensive stalwart for the club.

One significant advantage Napoli enjoys at this juncture of the season is a relatively favourable fixture list in the near term. 

With no European competitions, their next outings against teams like Como, Empoli, and Lecce provide a prime opportunity to consolidate their lead. 

These fixtures, on paper, are manageable encounters with teams that comparatively lack the firepower to unsettle Napoli's burgeoning momentum.

With Juventus, AC Milan, and Inter Milan all having to play in the Champions League as well as face tougher opponents domestically in the next three weeks, and with the Derby d’Italia—Inter vs. Juventus—scheduled for October 27, Napoli stand a real chance of widening the gap in the table against its direct rivals.

Therefore, the odds for winning the title or finishing in the top four are likely to reduce in the upcoming days.

Conte’s records speak for themselves

While not participating in European competitions might be seen as a limitation, it presents a silver lining for Napoli. The luxury of focusing solely on domestic games might give them the edge in maintaining player fitness, refining tactics, and sustaining performance levels across the season. 

Conte has emphasised that while the absence of European matches means smaller squad depth compared to their counterparts, it still allows extensive training and tactical preparation that could translate into domestic dominance. 

The manager won his last Scudetto with Inter in the 2020/2021 season, and that season the Nerazzurri were knocked out of European competitions in December after finishing bottom of their Champions League group. 

Same story at Juventus, back in 2011/2012, when the Bianconeri, who were not playing in Europe, went all season unbeaten and clinched the title ahead of AC Milan.

However, Conte’s pragmatism is informed by the club's recent history. 

Last season, Napoli showed flashes of brilliance but lacked consistency, ending the campaign 40 points adrift from the top.

Learning from the early scare in the opener against Verona, Napoli picked up pace and showed resilience. 

Conte's refusal to make hasty or overly ambitious decisions, unlike his predecessors, suggests a mature and calculated approach to every match. 

Certainly, the feeling is that his team has just begun to click and could further improve once summer signings David Neres and Billy Gilmour are fully integrated into the squad.

Serie A this season has been rife with unpredictability—the leading team’s position changing hands frequently. Torino, Udinese, and Juventus have all experienced brief stints at the top.

Within this environment, Napoli’s consistency under Conte stands out. His track record, characterised by never finishing below second place during his previous stints in Italy with Juventus and Inter, adds credence to Napoli’s chances.