Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The stage is set for a thrilling climax to Euro 2024 as Spain and England prepare to contest the title of European Champions this Sunday in Berlin. For the 'Three Lions,' this marks their first final on foreign soil, while the Spaniards bring a wealth of experience, having triumphed in their last three major finals (Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, and Euro 2012). However, no European team has ever won four consecutive finals. Can Luis de la Fuente’s men make history?
This edition of the Euros has seen an average of 2.28 goals per match, a noticeable decline from the 2.78 average in 2021, though not as low as the 2.12 goals per game recorded in the 2016 tournament. Historically, finals tend to be tight, cautious affairs, therefore a low-scoring game is anticipated.
For those interested in betting, the encounter between the tournament’s best attack (Spain, with 13 goals) and one of the most defensively robust sides (England) presents intriguing opportunities. Whether it's about goals, cards, or other betting markets, this final promises to be a fascinating contest on multiple fronts.
Only one of the previous 10 Euros finals has produced more than two goals.
England have generated an average of 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match during Euro 2024.
The referee, François Letexier, averages 3.84 yellow cards and only 0.25 red cards per game.
Low Scores Set the Stage for Potential Extra-Time
Recent history suggests the favourites often stumble at the final hurdle, with neither of the last two Euros finals being won by the pre-match favourites. Thus, even if the odds favour a Spanish victory within 90 minutes, the match is far from a foregone conclusion.
A closer look at the goals market reveals intriguing insights. Spain, fresh from a 2-1 triumph over France, have become the first nation to win six consecutive games at the Euros. They average 18 shots per game, six of which are on target. In contrast, England have generated an average of 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match during Euro 2024. For context, Luton Town averaged 1.23 xG in Premier League games last season.
A high-scoring match might spell trouble for Gareth Southgate’s men, but if the game follows the pattern of recent finals, England could have a chance. Nine of the last 10 Euros finals, dating back to 1984, have produced fewer than three goals, with four of the last seven going into extra time.
La Roja have exceeded expectations, showcasing great spirit and the cutting edge they often lacked in recent years. Meanwhile, England have proven to be a formidable tournament side under Southgate. They have lost just two of their last 13 knockout games within 90 minutes and have conceded an average of just 0.74 xG at Euro 2024. To put this in perspective, Arsenal, who boasted the best defensive record in the Premier League last season, conceded 0.86 xG per game.
Discipline often prevails
One of football’s most common misconceptions is that the bigger the game, the more likely tackles and cards will be flying. However, at the European level, the opposite is often true.
Consider the last two Euros finals: in 2016, there were only three yellow cards within 90 minutes, and in 2021, there were four, with England picking up none in their match against Italy. When Spain won the Euros in 2008 and 2012, the number of cautions was even lower, with three and two respectively. The last player to be sent off in a Euro final was Yvon Le Roux in 1984 during France’s 2-0 win over Spain.
A similar trend is observed in recent Champions League finals. This year, only four players were booked, five in 2023 (three in stoppage time), and just one in 2022 when Real Madrid defeated Liverpool.
Elite teams tend to maintain high levels of discipline in important games, which are often very clean. Adding to this, the match’s referee, 35-year-old François Letexier, is not known for brandishing cards frequently. In over 200 matches refereed, he averages 3.84 yellow cards and only 0.25 red cards per game.