Format Change In Cagey South American Qualifiers Opens Betting Angle

Analysing the current landscape of the qualifiers suggests that betting strategies focused on low-scoring games, clean sheets, or backing favourites to win combined with an under 3.5 goals selection appear to be prudent choices.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Brazilian woes and environmental challenges

Before delving into strategy, it's crucial to understand the statistical context of the CONMEBOL qualifiers. 

With 80 goals scored across 45 matches, the average number of goals per match currently stands at 1.78, significantly lower than previous cycles, where averages exceeded 2.5 goals per game in the previous two World Cup qualifiers.

Nearly half of the games (49%) have finished with minimal scores of 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1, leaving just four matches with more than three goals scored.

Even footballing giants like Brazil and the reigning World Champions of Argentina are not immune to low-scoring draws and narrow losses, especially when they play away from home. 

Brazil's lack of clear identity, and their unusually cautious approach, partly due to Neymar’s absence and further hampered by injuries to key players such as Vinícius Júnior, has seen them partake in tight contests. This is reflected in their four defeats over the past nine matches—the same number Brazil suffered over their prior 63 qualifiers.

Let’s not underestimate the challenges of playing in South America, where the environment and travel impose additional layers of difficulty. 

The Bolivian altitudes are a notorious example, with home advantage intensified by colossal elevation shifts, testing the endurance of visiting players. 

Notably, Bolivia have recently moved their home fixtures to El Alto—the highest city in South America—further enhancing their unpredictability and underscoring the role of climatic challenges in supporting low-scoring encounters.

Furthermore, the extensive travel burden on Europe-based players significantly affects preparation and performance. Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia have a high number of overseas players who must quickly transition from club commitments to international duties. 

The resulting physical and mental adjustments lead to games being played at a slower pace, often leading to fewer scoring opportunities.

Paraguay, the masters of tight games

With the expansion of the FIFA World Cup to 48 teams in 2026, the dynamics of South American qualifiers have shifted significantly. 

Six of the 10 CONMEBOL teams will qualify directly, with a seventh entering an intercontinental playoff. This means 60-70% of South American teams could potentially secure a World Cup spot, easing the intense competition for the top positions. 

Unlike other regions, South America offer no easy matches similar to those European sides play against San Marino or Malta.

Even historically weaker teams like Venezuela and Ecuador present tough obstacles, especially when they play in front of their crowd. 

The new qualification format does not simplify the strategy; instead, it encourages cautious, low-scoring games as teams focus on securing points without taking unnecessary risks. 

Given the frequency of close contests, betting on low-scoring matches is a smart strategy. 

Paraguay's performance embodies this trend. With nine matches yielding only two goals scored and three conceded, and five instances of 0-0 stalemates, Paraguay’s resilience illustrates the value in betting on low-scoring outcomes. 

Their matches have become synonymous with a sub-3.5 goals result, an insight bettors can use to align their predictions with likely game outcomes.

Backing favourites to win combined with under 3.5 goals is another tactic bettors should consider. Argentina and Colombia, on stable paths to the World Cup, have consistently edged out victories with disciplined performances rather than goal fests. 

These teams secure crucial points through solid defensive work, often a single decisive goal—a pattern ideal for combining the favourites’ victory with under 3.5 goals.