Our betting expert expects a tough outing for Newcastle, especially away from home. It could end in a draw, or the home side might edge it.
Best bets for Qarabag FK vs Newcastle
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.89 on Betway
- Double chance - Qarabag/ Draw at odds of 2.75 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Camilo Duran at odds of 6.80 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Qarabag FK 1-1 Newcastle
- Goalscorers prediction: Qarabag FK: Camilo Duran; Newcastle: Anthony Gordon
Qarabag must be thrilled they finally made it to the Champions League knockout phase for the first time in their history. The Azerbaijan champions reached this stage of the competition thanks to their 22nd-place finish in the league phase.
Head coach Gurban Gurbanov hopes his side can continue their good fortune in this crucial tie to get through to the last 16. He’s seen his team improve dramatically after they finished last in the Europa League group phase last season. With this being only their second appearance in the UCL proper, the Blue and Whites have certainly impressed.
The hosts enter this fixture on the back of a weekend win, which has provided a timely confidence boost. They will entertain Newcastle United, who finished the league phase two places above them. The Magpies were only four points ahead of their hosts, which indicates they’re quite closely matched.
Eddie Howe’s men are now in their fourth UCL campaign proper and only their second since the 2002/03 season. This is the first time the Toon have qualified for the knockout section of the competition, a similarity they share with the hosts.
The Magpies snapped a winless run against Spurs last week, which should hold them in good stead. However, the European stage is a tricky one, especially on the road. Hence, the visitors have a tough task if they hope to carry an advantage back to St James’ Park.
Probable lineups for Qarabag FK vs Newcastle
Qarabag FK expected lineup: Kochalski, Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev, Bicalho, Jankovic, Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir, Duran
Newcastle expected lineup: Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Tonali, Guimaraes, Ramsey, Barnes, Wissa, Gordon
Home advantage favours Qarabag
Across their eight matches in the league phase, the hosts scored 13 goals at an average of 1.63 goals per game. The problem for the Horsemen is they shipped 21 goals in that run, averaging 2.63 goals per game going the other way. With only one clean sheet in this competition this term, Qarabag are likely to concede.
Newcastle’s attack is one of the best in the UCL. They’ve managed to score 17 goals in eight games. Also, they’ve been decent at the back, keeping clean sheets in 50% of their matches. However, they prevented the opponents from scoring only once (25%) across their four away dates.
Qarabag are more comfortable at home, as nine of their 13 goals came in front of their fans. Furthermore, they’ve scored a minimum of two goals in each of their UCL matches in their backyard. Five of the hosts’ eight games saw both teams score, while three of Newcastle’s last four UCL outings ended with the same outcome.
- Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.89 on Betway
A hard night in Baku
It’s clear that Gurbanov’s charges are at their best at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku. The Horsemen have only lost twice across their last 16 games at home in all competitions. In that run, the hosts won 11 matches, which proves they are difficult to beat on their patch.
Meanwhile, Newcastle could only manage one victory on the road in this UCL campaign. They endured a five-game winless run, including three defeats on the bounce. Then they finally secured a victory away to Tottenham in the league.
The Baku outfit have won four of their last seven UCL home games. They’ve also won eight of their previous 10 European two-legged ties. Qarabag shouldn't be underestimated in their surroundings, which is why a draw is the likely outcome. However, a home win shouldn’t be ruled out completely, purely because the visitors struggle on their travels.
- Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Betting Tip 2: Double chance - Qarabag/ Draw at odds of 2.75 on Betway
The key to unlock Newcastle
Several goalscorers will be on show on Wednesday night when these teams meet. The majority of those will come from the visitors’ side. Yet, the home supporters will be pinning their hopes on one player for goals.
Camilo Duran has been impressive in the Champions League, having scored the opening goal in each of Qarabag’s last two home matches. He’s already scored four goals in his eight UCL matches this season and is entering this game in great form.
Duran scored in the hosts’ domestic match last week, so he will be eager to impress on Wednesday. It’s worth noting that he’s scored three goals in his last four outings across all competitions for Qarabag. If they’re to get any joy against Newcastle, Duran is the key.
- Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Camilo Duran at odds of 6.80 on Betway