Our betting expert expects Napoli and Roma to share the spoils in a tense Derby del Sole battle at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Best bets for Napoli vs Roma
- Both teams to score – Yes, at odds of 2.05 on Betway
- Napoli to win or draw & Under 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
- Antonio Vergara to score or assist, at odds of 2.62 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Napoli 1-1 Roma
- Goalscorers prediction: Napoli: Antonio Vergara; Roma: Donyell Malen
Napoli return to Serie A reeling from their Coppa Italia quarter-final exit. Their loss to Cesc Fabregas’ Como in a tense penalty shootout marks their second cup elimination in just two weeks.
For Antonio Conte, the focus entirely turns to Serie A, where Napoli trail leaders Inter Milan by nine points. Yet, concerns continue to loom over the team.
Since Scott McTominay’s half-time injury against Genoa, Napoli have lacked midfield balance. That 3-2 victory at Stadio Luigi Ferraris secured Conte’s 400th career win, but it came at a cost.
Meanwhile, Roma are level on 46 points with fourth-placed Juventus after beating Cagliari 2-0. A Donyell Malen brace sealed their 15th victory in 24 games this season – a feat achieved only twice before in club history.
Roma have lost just once in their last six league outings. That sole defeat came away at Udinese last weekend.
With just three points separating the two rivals, the stakes are high. Napoli benefit from home advantage. However, Roma’s stellar defence makes the prospect of a Derby del Sole draw a very compelling outcome.
Probable lineups for Napoli vs Roma
Napoli expected lineup: Mlinkovic-Savic, Jesus, Rrahmani, Beukema, Lobotka, Mazzocchi, Olivera, Elmas, Vergara, Nascimento, Hojlund
Roma expected lineup: Svilar, Mancini, N’Dicka, Ghilardi. Pisilli, Wesley, Cristante, Celik, Soule, Pellegrini, Malen
No clean sheet in Naples
Napoli rarely leave a match goalless. They have failed to net just twice in their last 10 outings. At home, their three scoreless games all ended in 0-0 draws.
Their fortress remains intact. Napoli are one of two sides yet to be beaten at home this season, going unbeaten in 22 straight league games at the Maradona. Yet, a flaw is evident. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in six competitive fixtures.
Resilient Roma are standing in their way, having conceded a league-low 14 goals. They have also shipped just eight away goals — the joint second-fewest in the division.
However, resilience has come at a cost. The Giallorossi’s attack ranks third-worst among the top ten, with 29 goals. That’s nearly half of Inter’s 57 goal tally.
Napoli rarely fail to treat their fans to a goal. Roma, despite their blunt attack, face a home defence that cannot shut opponents out. A bet on both teams scoring seems like the most logical outcome.
- Napoli vs Roma Bet 1: Both teams to score – Yes, at odds of 2.05 on Betway
Double chance in Napoli’s favour
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona will be eager for a response after the Coppa Italia disappointment. Napoli are within touching distance of AC Milan in Serie A. The Rossoneri lead them by one point, but they have an extra game in hand.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma prioritise safety over spectacle. A staggering 19 of their 24 league matches have seen under 2.5 goals, as have eight of their last 10 H2Hs. Defensive resilience has defined Roma’s season.
History favours a tight affair. Neither side has scored more than once in their last three meetings. The capital club have failed to win any of those games. The last victory over Napoli came in December 2023. Their record in Naples is even worse, having failed to win there since March 2018.
Although wounded, Napoli are unbeaten at home. They face a Roma side built to frustrate opponents. Points may be shared. However, the hosts, driven by their home faithful, are more likely to edge it.
Recent form, head-to-head history and defensive resolve all point to the same double chance outcome. A low-scoring affair with Napoli avoiding defeat seems like a probable outcome
- Napoli vs Roma Bet 2: Napoli to win or draw & Under 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
Vergara offers value
Antonio Vergara made his senior Napoli debut as a substitute in this season’s opening game against Sassuolo. He then saw little game time for several months, until recently.
Conte finally gave the 23-year-old a starring role in the decisive Champions League home fixture against Chelsea on the final matchday. Napoli were ultimately eliminated, but Vergara announced himself on the big stage with a remarkable effort.
The Napoli prodigy executed a brilliant solo run, which ended with a perfect Maradona turn and finish. At the stadium bearing the Argentine icon’s name, the pirouette caught Chelsea defenders off guard and sent the crowd into raptures.
The young talent now has three goals and one assist in four appearances. Each of those strikes was Napoli’s first of the match.
With Conte’s trust, the young talent is on the rise. Another goal contribution against Roma is well within reach for the Partenopei academy product.
- Napoli vs Roma Bet 3: Antonio Vergara to score or assist, at odds of 2.62 on Betway