Atalanta will be relishing this contest. They’ve avoided defeat in 11 of their last 14 clashes with Bundesliga outfits in European competition.
Best bets for Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
- Draw or Bayern Munich and Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 1.87 with Betway
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.70 with Betway
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 2.05 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Atalanta 1-2 Bayern Munich
- Goalscorers prediction – Atalanta: Scamacca – Bayern Munich: Kane, Musiala
Atalanta host the first half of a fascinating Champions League last-16 tie with Bayern Munich on Tuesday evening.
La Dea are the last remaining Italian side in this season’s UCL. However, the 2024 Europa League winners will start this contest as serious underdogs, given Bayern’s strength.
Their form has started to wane in recent weeks, immediately after Raffaele Palladino had landed Serie A’s Manager of the Month award for February. They haven’t won in their last two league games and could only draw with Lazio in their Coppa Italia semi-final first leg.
Palladino rotated his squad slightly for the weekend draw with Udinese, with skipper Marten De Roon set to return to face Bayern. Giorgio Scalvini is absent through suspension, while key creator Charles De Ketelaere remains sidelined with a knee injury.
Bayern Munich have been in rampant domestic form of late. They’ve scored 18 goals in their last five Bundesliga matches. A 4-1 win over ten-man Borussia Monchengladbach last Friday gave them an extra day of rest for Tuesday’s match.
Star striker, Harry Kane, is the biggest concern for Bayern boss Vincent Kompany. Kane missed the win over Gladbach with a calf problem, but Kompany is confident he will return this week. Keeper, Manuel Neuer, is a bigger issue, having been substituted in the second half on Friday. Jonas Urbig will be on hand to deputise if needed.
Probable lineups for Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Atalanta expected lineup: Carnesecchi, Hien, Zappacosta, Kolasinac, Kossounou, Pasailic, De Roon, Bernasconi, Samardzic, Zalewski, Scamacca
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Urbig, Laimer, Tah, Stanisic, Upamecano, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Olise, Diaz, Musiala, Kane
La Dea find the net as Bayern eye a way
Vincent Kompany’s Bayern have averaged 2.50 points per game on the road in the UCL this season. They’ve scored 2.5 goals per away game from an xG of 1.85. Atalanta have averaged 2.60 points per home game, so it’s clear they can’t be taken lightly.
Bayern have lost only one of their last ten UCL matches. Meanwhile, Atalanta have a 50% win record from their last ten.
With Neuer likely to be sidelined and Kane not expected to be 100% fit, Bayern may be forced to fight. A draw or a narrow away win are a possibility, since Kompany’s men seem to find ways to win in any scenario this season.
Both teams have scored in 80% of Atalanta’s UCL home games and 75% of Bayern’s UCL away games. We are pairing this with a double chance bet that effectively lays Atalanta at a probability of only 53.48%. This is likely the best value play from our trio of Atalanta vs Bayern Munich predictions.
- Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Bet 1: Draw or Bayern Munich and Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 1.87 with Betway
Three goals or fewer anticipated
This is the first 90 minutes of an 180-minute saga. Atalanta will be eager to keep themselves in contention heading into the second leg. Only 30% of their UCL games this season have featured four or more goals. The data suggests there is around a 40% chance of it happening on Tuesday night.
We can back Under 3.5 Goals at a probability of 58.82%, which is lower than the 60% likelihood indicated by the stats.
With Harry Kane’s participation still not set in stone for Tuesday night, Bayern’s attack could be limited. Although that didn’t stop them against Gladbach, Atalanta are a difficult proposition in front of their own fans.
- Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.70 with Betway
Most goals to arrive after the break
Only 34% of Atalanta’s goals scored in the UCL this season have arrived before the 50th minute. A staggering 45% of their goals have been scored between the 71st minute and the full-time whistle.
Bayern have scored almost two-fifths (37%) of their goals after the hour mark. 75% of their goals have been scored after the 41st minute. All of this points to a cagey first 45 minutes and the contest opening up after the interval.
As this is the first leg, neither side will want to be too open in the early exchanges. There are question marks over the fitness of Harry Kane, which means Bayern may be without their main attacking threat. Meanwhile, Atalanta rested some of their key players at the weekend, so they’ll have a full-strength midfield early on.
- Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Bet 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 2.05 with Betway