This season’s Champions League promises to be an extraordinary one for Italian football, with five Serie A teams—Inter, Juventus, AC Milan, Atalanta, and Bologna—competing in Europe’s premier club competition.
With the unique single-league phase format, the journey will be unlike any seen before.
The 2024-2025 Champions League sees a significant change in format, with 36 teams playing in a single league phase instead of the traditional group stage. Each team will face eight opponents—four at home and four away—before the top eight teams qualify directly for the knockout stages. Teams placed between ninth and 25th will enter a playoff round, while the bottom eight will be eliminated.
From Inter to Bologna, via Atalanta, Milan, and Juventus, who has had the luckiest draw, and who can realistically hope to qualify?
- Inter Milan was the last Italian team to reach the Champions League final (in 2023) and win the competition (in 2010).
- In 2023, three Serie A sides played in the Champions League quarter-finals: Inter Milan, AC Milan, and Napoli.
- Juventus have lost seven of the nine Champions League finals they've played, which is the all-time record for most finals lost.
| Champions League Outright Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Inter Milan: League Stage Top 8 Finish | 2.50 |
| Juventus: League Stage Top 8 Finish | 3.30 |
| AC Milan: League Stage Top Serie A Team | 4.00 |
| Atalanta: League Stage Top Serie A Team | 5.00 |
| Bologna: League Stage To Finish Bottom | 41.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A Tough Draw, But No Pushovers
In the new 36-team league phase, the target for progression is clearer but challenging.
According to simulations by Football Meets Data, nine points should be enough to secure at least a playoff spot, while 10 points nearly guarantee advancement. To qualify directly for the last 16, teams will likely need at least 15 points, with a score of 16 or 17 making a top-eight finish almost certain.
Inter Milan and Juventus, with relatively balanced draws, will have their eyes on the top eight, while Atalanta and AC Milan will be aiming to make the playoffs at the very least. Bologna, on the other hand, will relish the experience of competing at this level, with any progression seen as a bonus.
Inter, the reigning Serie A champions, face a tough but navigable path.
While Manchester City at the Etihad is undoubtedly the toughest test, the Nerazzurri can take heart from hosting Arsenal and RB Leipzig at home. To secure a top-eight finish and direct entry to the knockout stage, Inter must capitalise on their home fixtures against Red Star and Monaco, while avoiding slip-ups against Young Boys and Sparta Prague on the road.
In the past two seasons, the Nerazzurri have lost only four of their 21 Champions League matches, and manager Simone Inzaghi will look to build on their domestic dominance. Consistency will be key against Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen—matches that could define their campaign.
Juventus will face a mix of familiar foes and new challenges, with Manchester City and Benfica representing the biggest hurdles.
Playing Guardiola’s men at home might provide some comfort, but the Bianconeri will need to shake off their historical struggles against the Portuguese side, having lost three of the last four games played against them.
With matches against PSV, Stuttgart, and Club Brugge at home, and away fixtures at Lille and Aston Villa, Juventus have a fair path to progress.
The ‘Old Lady’ returns to Europe’s top competition after a year's absence due to the UEFA ban and looks to do better than in 2022/2023 when they finished third in their qualifying group behind PSG and Benfica.
Manager Thiago Motta’s side has the quality to aim for a top-eight finish, but positive results in these mid-tier clashes will be essential.
A Fairy Tale Return
AC Milan's draw is a mix of nostalgia and challenge and offers a realistic shot at advancing to the next stage.
Hosting Liverpool brings back memories of classic European nights, while facing Real Madrid away will be a true test of their credentials.
Despite the glamour of these ties, Milan’s path to the knockout stages will likely hinge on taking maximum points from Club Brugge, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, and Dinamo Zagreb.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta face a daunting draw with ties against both Spanish giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Last season’s Europa League winners have already lost against Los Blancos this season in the SuperCup, but playing in Bergamo could give them a chance for an upset, while the home tie against Arsenal will be pivotal for their aspirations.
Known for their fearless style, Atalanta could cause a few surprises, especially with home fixtures against Celtic and Sturm Graz offering potential points.
The road to the knockouts won’t be easy, but their European triumph in May, when they inflicted the first defeat on Bayer Leverkusen, shows they’re capable of upsetting the odds.
Finally, Bologna’s return to the Champions League after 60 years is a story in itself, and their draw presents both challenges and opportunities.
Hosting Borussia Dortmund is a glamour tie, but away trips to Liverpool, Benfica, and Aston Villa look daunting. Their best chance of picking up points will come from home matches against Shakhtar, Lille, and Monaco.
Without the weight of expectations, Vincenzo Italiano’s side will hope to enjoy the ride and perhaps cause a few surprises along the way.
Italiano has led Fiorentina to two consecutive Conference League finals, but given his players' limited European experience, the prospect of picking up just a handful of points also seems realistic.