Portugal vs France Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Portugal vs. France
- France to win with odds of @2.38 on 10bet, meaning a 42.1% implied probability (41.7% with Parions).
- Kylian Mbappé to score with odds of @2.60 on 10bet, meaning a 38.5% implied probability.
- France to keep a clean sheet with odds of @2.45 on 10bet, meaning a 40.8% implied probability.
We predict France to win by a scoreline of 2-0.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
France and Portugal meet in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 on Friday night. Hamburg plays host to this knockout showdown between two of Europe’s powerhouses.
Portugal were taken to a penalty shootout by Slovenia in the round of 16 after Cristiano Ronaldo missed from the spot in normal time. Diogo Costa saved Pepe’s blushes late on when Benjamin Sesko was through on goal.
Roberto Martinez’s side have not been at their best so far in this competition. Martinez is still searching for balance in attack, and Ronaldo seemed more of a hindrance than an asset in the final third.
France have had their own attacking struggles. Kylian Mbappe is the only player to find the net for Didier Deschamps’ team, and that came from the penalty spot against Poland in the final group match. Had Belgium been more clinical, Les Bleus could have been knocked out in the round of 16.
Deschamps opted for a diamond against Belgium, and he may well stick with that solidity against a talented Portugal team. Mbappe is still playing with a protective mask, and he’s yet to really set this tournament alight like he has in previous major international competitions.
Probable Lineups for Portugal vs. France
Portugal probable XI:
Costa; Cancelo, Pepe, Dias, Mendes; Vitinha, Palhinha; Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo.
France probable XI:
Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot, Tchouameni; Griezmann; Thuram, Mbappe.
Les Bleus Get Over The Line
France have been wildly unimpressive in Euro 2024 to date. Two of their three goals have been own goals, and the other was from the penalty spot. Portugal’s performances haven’t been much better, however, and they really struggled against a stubborn Slovenia team on Monday night.
Portugal needed an added-time goal to beat Czechia. Turkey handed the game to them, and they lost to Georgia. Cristiano Ronaldo’s selfish performance in the round of 16 undermined the team-wide effort. Roberto Martinez has been unwilling to take Ronaldo off the pitch, and that could cost Portugal against a well-organised France team on Friday.
Since 2016, France have made the final at three out of four major tournaments. Since beating France in the final of Euro 2016, Portugal have not been beyond the quarters. France are good value to get the job done here – we don’t have much faith in Portugal or Martinez under this much pressure.
- Portugal vs France Bet 1: France to win @ 2.38 with 10bet
Mbappe Finds The Net
France are lacking a goal threat beyond Kylian Mbappe. Marcus Thuram has collected just 0.82 expected goals in 227 minutes of action. Antoine Griezmann is often playing in a deeper position as a playmaker, and he’s only had 2.5 shots per match so far in Euro 2024.
Mbappe has been averaging five shots per match at Euro 2024, which is the joint-most in the tournament. Among players with more than 130 minutes of play, Kai Havertz is the only one with a higher expected goals per 90 than Mbappe.
While Mbappe’s Euros have been disrupted by his broken nose, he has still been a constant threat and remains France’s primary outlet in the final third. With Portugal expected to commit bodies forward, we think Mbappe will have enough goal-scoring opportunities to make the difference on Friday night.
- Portugal vs France Bet 2: Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer @ 2.60 with 10bet
France’s Defence to Stifle Portugal’s Attacks
France have kept clean sheets in three of their four matches at Euro 2024. Portugal have failed to score over 210 minutes against Georgia and Slovenia. Yes, Martinez’s side have underachieved their expected goals, but they have consistently been wasteful in the final third, partly because of how many attacks are funnelled to Ronaldo.
Deschamps has had plenty of success at this level by prioritising defence. He opted to pack the midfield against Belgium with N’Golo Kante, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Adrien Rabiot in a midfield three. They have conceded just 3.1 expected goals in four matches.
The way France have set up in Germany this summer doesn’t suggest this will be an entertaining match for the neutrals. Deschamps will aim to stifle a Portugal team packed with attacking talent, and hope to snatch a goal through Mbappe’s individual brilliance.
- Portugal vs France Bet 3: France to keep a clean sheet @ 2.45 with 10bet