All three sides below Villa in the UEL winner odds have generated more xG than Villa so far this campaign. Who should we back to go all the way?
| Europa League winner market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 4.00 |
| Roma | 8.00 |
| Porto | 9.00 |
| Lyon | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Assessing Villa’s credentials and their closest rival for the Europa League trophy
Unai Emery’s Villa are the bookmakers’ favourites to lift the 2025/26 Europa League in May. With the bracket for the round of 16 starting to come to fruition, we can plot Villa’s potential run to the final.
After a comeback 3-2 home win over RB Salzburg in their final league-phase game, Villa secured a top-eight finish. They will face one of FK Crvena Zvezda, PAOK, Celta Vigo or LOSC Lille in the last 16.
Lille would arguably be Villa’s toughest last-16 opponents. The French side posted a higher xG (1.70) than Villa (1.59) during the league phase. Lille seem to be saving their best for the Europa League this season. They sit 5th in Ligue 1, 16 points shy of PSG, and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak.
The likelihood is that Villa’s quarter-final opponents will either be AS Roma or SC Freiburg. That would pit them against the Giallorossi, who are currently second favourites in the Europa League winner market.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma will face either Dinamo Zagreb, Genk, Brann or Bologna in the last 16. An all-Italian last-16 encounter would be far from ideal for Roma. Bologna posted the highest xG (2.30) in the UEL league phase.
They are also unbeaten against Roma in their last four home meetings. This makes the first leg a tricky challenge for Roma.
With plenty of potential upsets on the horizon for both Villa and Roma, our attention turns to the other side of the draw. One or two teams seem to have a clearer path to the latter stages of the competition.
How do things look on the other side of the UEL draw?
Midtjylland, Real Betis, FC Porto and Braga finished inside the top six of the UEL league phase. This quartet appear to have an easier path through the opening knockout rounds than Villa or Roma.
Midtjylland and Real Betis will feature one of Panathinaikos, Viktoria Plzen, Fenerbahce or Nottingham Forest. Whichever side avoids Forest or Fenerbahce will surely stand a great chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Panathinaikos (1.56) and Viktoria Plzen (1.35) registered only the 18th and 27th-best xG metrics during the UEL league phase. Plzen hugely overperformed their xGA (0.38 vs 1.56). Therefore, any drop back to typical form would prove devastating to their knockout hopes.
Porto or Braga likely await Midtjylland or Real Betis in the quarter-finals, barring any surprises from knockout play-off winners. Like Lille, Braga have slipped well off the pace domestically this season. They sit in fourth, ten points behind third-placed Benfica in Liga Portugal.
Porto have been obliterating teams domestically. They’ve won 18 of their first 20 league games, conceding only six goals in 20 matches. Their xG and xGA metrics stand up too. They only overperformed them by a combined total of 0.04 goals.
Francesco Farioli’s Porto would therefore prove the toughest quarter-final opponents for Midtjylland or Real Betis.
Midtjylland finished the league phase as joint-top scorers with Lyon. They’ve netted 48 goals in 18 games domestically this season.
Meanwhile, Real Betis finished fourth in the league phase, having lost only one of their eight games. The Andalusian club have lost only five of their 22 La Liga matches. Their home form is rock-solid, averaging two points per game in La Liga and 2.50 points per game in the UEL.
The value in the market is to back whichever side is drawn to face the winner of Panathinaikos vs Viktoria Plzen (Midtjylland or Real Betis).
It’s also worth backing Porto, especially if they are drawn to face the winner of Ludogorets vs Ferencvaros. These sides are more likely to avoid Villa and Roma until at least the semi-final stage.