More Spot Kicks Drama? Why It Is A Good Idea To Back The Favourites To Win On Penalties

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The two most important continental competitions for national sides, Euro 2024 and the Copa America, have reached their climaxes as both tournaments enter the semi-final stage. As expected, when the level of the remaining teams increases, matches become tighter, and goals are at a premium compared to the group stage.

In fact, five out of the eight quarter-finals have been decided on penalties, with Spain vs. Germany nearly requiring spot kicks as La Roja scored in the last minute of extra time.

Each of the five penalty shootouts saw the favourite team winning, which does not come as a surprise to bettors who have followed this trend in recent years. So, if all the semi-finals go the distance, who should you pick and why?

A history of heroics and tears

The Euro 2024 quarter-finals have been packed with emotion, with the eight teams involved delivering exceptionally tense games. As seen in previous tournaments, the number of goals scored has started to decrease, currently standing at 2.25 per match since the beginning of the knockout stage.

In fact, from the Round of 16, games have seen an average of 2.08 goals per game, excluding extra time, with eight out of 12 games producing fewer than three goals. Historically, betting on under 2.5 goals during the knockout stage has been consistently profitable in each round of the Euros since their inception.

It is likely both semi-finals, Spain vs. France and Netherlands vs. England will not produce a high number of goals, and there is a high probability of a draw in 90 minutes. Extra time periods often witness defensive play, and two of the last six Euros semi-finals have been decided by penalties. So, who should you back?

Since the 1998 World Cup, the favourites have emerged victorious in 23 out of 33 penalty shootouts across both the World Cup and Euro tournaments. This trend has held true for Portugal, England, and France in this tournament.

Spain, who are the favourites to beat France, have won seven out of 13 penalty shootouts, including the last Nations League final against Croatia. England’s record from the penalty spot remains negative with four wins and seven defeats. Still, under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions have achieved success in three of their last four shootouts. The Netherlands' win ratio is only 25%, whereas France have lost two World Cup finals from the spot.

With the semi-finals approaching, will we witness more penalty drama, and who will prevail in the pressure cooker of a shootout?

World Cup winners to continue their good tradition

After beating Ecuador on penalties, Argentina remain strong favourites to win the Copa America. Despite Lionel Messi’s error from the penalty spot, the World Cup holders advanced to the semi-final thanks to Emiliano Martinez’s heroics.

Aston Villa’s goalkeeper has an impressive penalty record. Of the 24 penalties he has faced for his national side, the 31-year-old has saved nine, with three others off target. Argentina have won their last four shoot-outs after suffering back-to-back defeats on penalties in the 2015 and 2016 Copa America finals, both won by Chile.

In 2021, Colombia were defeated on penalties by Messi’s side in the Copa America semi-final. This time, they are slight favourites against Uruguay.

Although Nestor Lorenzo’s men easily dispatched Panama, they now face a much sterner test. Los Cafeteros have been involved in penalty shootouts in the past five editions of the Copa America and are seeking revenge after being knocked out on penalties in the last two tournaments.

Uruguay, on the other hand, had not won a penalty shoot-out since 2011 before beating Brazil in the quarter-finals.

Canada are the least experienced nation of the lot when it comes to penalties. They have only been involved in five shootouts and lost three of them. Ultimately, superior quality tends to triumph even amidst the pressure of a penalty shootout.