Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Inter Over 1.5 Goals with odds of @1.65 on Betway, equating to a 60% chance of Inter scoring more than once.
Both Teams to score - Yes with odds of @1.70 on Betway, indicating a 59% chance of both sides finding the back of the net.
Inter Milan victory with odds of @1.70 on Betway, representing a 58%% chance of the Nerazzurri winning.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
This Sunday, the iconic Derby della Madonnina returns to the spotlight, with the Nerazzurri playing hosts at the San Siro. With both teams carrying contrasting fortunes into this clash, the matchup promises to be, as always, one of the most exciting fixtures in the Serie A calendar.
For AC Milan, the past month has been nothing short of a struggle. Despite high hopes and a busy summer transfer window, the Rossoneri seem to be heading toward a crisis, both on and off the pitch.
Paulo Fonseca, the man at the helm, finds himself under pressure as Milan's performances have been far from convincing.
The recent loss to Liverpool in the Champions League highlighted their shortcomings, especially in defence and midfield.
The 1-3 defeat was not just a scoreline, but an indication of deeper problems within the team. Milan, who took an early lead through Christian Pulisic, crumbled under pressure as Liverpool dominated for the remaining 70 minutes. The alarming statistic of conceding 19 shots in just 70 minutes is indicative of a fragile backline that has struggled to contain opposition attacks.
In stark contrast, Inter Milan come into the derby with confidence on their side. Despite a 1-1 draw against Monza on Sunday, the Nerazzurri remain favourites thanks to their six consecutive wins in the derby.
Led by Simone Inzaghi, Inter boast a strong squad with depth in every position. The midfield trio of Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been instrumental in controlling games, while Lautaro and Thuram have always performed at their very best against their city rivals.
Probable Lineups for Inter Milan vs AC Milan
The probable lineup for Inter Milan in the "system of play."
Inter Milan (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
The probable lineup for AC Milan in the "system of play."
AC Milan (4-2-1-3): Torriani; Emerson Royal, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana; Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Leao, Morata.
Last chance for Fonseca?
As Fonseca admitted after the Champions League tie, AC Milan are defensively fragile. So far, they’ve only kept a clean sheet in one of their five games, and that came against the newly-promoted side Venezia and conceded at least twice in all of the other games.
The absence of a commanding leader in the heart of the midfield and a creative defender capable of building play from the back has left Milan lacking direction. Fikayo Tomori and Strahinja Pavlović, tasked with defending and distributing, have struggled to do either effectively.
Meanwhile, the midfield duo of Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Youssouf Fofana hasn’t stepped up to lead the team, often failing to demand the ball or create opportunities in transition.
This lack of leadership and tactical clarity has left Milan vulnerable, with glaring issues both in and out of possession. Against Liverpool, they were too passive in key moments, allowing their opponents to dictate play without much resistance.
One of Milan’s biggest tactical dilemmas is their inability to sustain pressure over 90 minutes.
The Rossoneri started brightly against Liverpool, pressing high and maintaining a compact shape, but once the opposition raised the tempo, Milan collapsed. This inability to handle high-pressing teams is a concern heading into the derby, as Inter are known for their intense pressing and quick transitions under Simone Inzaghi.
The midfield, rather than offering solutions, has frequently disappeared in critical moments, leaving Milan exposed. If these issues persist, Inter will likely capitalise on Milan’s structural frailties .
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Bet 1: Inter Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.65 with Betway
Set pieces weaknesses
Milan’s vulnerability on set-pieces has been a recurring issue, with the club conceding 18 goals from corners and free-kicks since the summer of 2022. This defensive frailty has cost them dearly, with the defeat to Liverpool further exposing these weaknesses. Against a physical Inter side, led by the likes of Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram, Milan’s susceptibility to aerial duels could prove decisive.
Lautaro, despite a somewhat sluggish start to the season, remains a constant threat in the box, and Inter’s set-piece proficiency could make all the difference in this derby.
Milan’s goalkeeper situation adds another layer of concern, with Mike Maignan suffering an injury against Liverpool. If Maignan is unable to feature, Milan will have to rely on Lorenzo Torriani, a young and inexperienced keeper, to step up in one of the biggest games of the season.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Bet 2: Both Teams to score - Yes @ 1.70 with Betway
Lautaro searching for goals
Inzaghi’s Inter play with high intensity, pressing aggressively and looking to transition quickly when they regain possession. This approach has worked well against teams that struggle to build out from the back, and Milan, given their current form, fall into this category.
While Thuram’s performance against Monza may not have been up to his usual high standards, his early-season form – which included two goals against Genoa and Atalanta – shows his capability.
Lautaro, despite scoring only once in Inter’s last 12 league games, remains the Nerazzurri’s main threat. The Argentine can boast an excellent record in derbies, eight goals and three assists in 16 games, and his ability to link up with Thuram and create opportunities in the final third will be crucial.
The Derby della Madonnina never fails to deliver drama, and Sunday’s edition promises to be no different. Both teams will be desperate for a result, but it’s Inter who appear more likely to come out on top.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Bet 3: Inter Milan victory @ 1.70 with Betway