EFL Cup winner odds: How the quarter-finals have changed the betting

Despite not playing their quarter-final until next week, Arsenal remain the clear second favourites. A semi-final against Chelsea is awaiting them.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Will City’s strong record against Newcastle hold up to reach the EFL Cup final?

Manchester City reached the last four of the EFL Cup by defeating Brentford on Wednesday night. Pep Guardiola opted to rest his star striker, Erling Haaland. Mukasa was given a rare outing in attack. That didn’t stop City’s attack, as goals before and after half-time sealed a comfortable 2-0 victory.

City restricted the Bees to just three goal attempts on target. Their defensive structure once again proved watertight.

That’s despite resting first-choice centre halves Gvardiol and Dias on the bench. City now have a golden opportunity to win the EFL Cup for a seventh time since 2014.

The betting markets believe they have a 40% chance of lifting the EFL Cup in 2026. City have been drawn against Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United in a two-legged semi-final.

They did lose to the Magpies in the EFL Cup as recently as 2023, when they lost 1-0 at St James’ Park. However, their long-term head-to-head record with Newcastle is a very encouraging one.

Guardiola’s men have lost just four times to Newcastle since September 2005. The signs look good for City. The last time they reached the semi-finals in 2021, they went on to win the competition.

There’s no doubt that Guardiola values this competition highly, as demonstrated by the number of EFL cups won in his reign. It’s a trophy that can help City regain invincibility and the winning momentum they’ve lost in the last two transitional seasons.

Should Arsenal be written off after a challenging route to Wembley?

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners are said to have a 28.57% chance of winning the 2025/26 EFL Cup. There are several reasons why Arsenal don’t offer enough value to back at those odds.

Firstly, it’s important to consider Arsenal’s priorities for the season. Their main priority this season is securing their first Premier League title since 2004.

The club only have two EFL cups to their name, with the last won back in 1993. That was the same year that the Gunners won the FA Cup.

Although a third EFL Cup would be another boost, it’s a competition that could jeopardise Arsenal’s Premier League campaign.

The Champions League could also be considered a distraction, but this carries much more weight and prestige. They’ve been perfect in the Champions League so far, becoming the only team to maintain a 100% win record.

The Gunners last won a major European trophy in 1994 with the Cup Winners’ Cup. A Champions League has eluded them throughout their rich history. Arteta will surely prioritise winning the EPL and Champions League over the EFL Cup.

Furthermore, Arsenal haven’t even qualified for the semi-finals yet. Their last-eight tie with Crystal Palace is scheduled for next week. Palace may see the EFL Cup as a serious opportunity to win silverware, so they will be dangerous opponents.

Even if the Gunners find a way past the Eagles, they would face Chelsea in a two-legged semi-final.

Arsenal appear to have something of a hold over the Blues in recent years. They’ve lost just once in their last 12 meetings in all competitions.

Yet, Chelsea are getting some of their star players back to full fitness, namely Cole Palmer. Enzo Maresca’s men are by no means guaranteed to reach a Wembley final.

It could be better value to back Chelsea’s EFL Cup outright odds at a probability of just 22.22%. The Blues are already guaranteed a place in the last four. Maresca will likely pick a stronger XI to face Arsenal or Palace than the one that overcame League One Cardiff City.