Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Croatia vs Italy
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 with Betway, representing a 54%-57% chance for the game to end with two goals or less.
- Drawn Match @ 3.20 with Betway, representing a 31.25% chance for the game to end in a draw.
- 0-0 1st Half Correct Score @ 2.80 with Betway, representing a 35.7% chance for the first half to end goalless.
Italy will be content with a 1-1 draw which would likely kill off Croatia’s hopes of reaching the knockout stage.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Italy did the business in their opening group game with Albania, but came unstuck against the impressive Spaniards. Croatia also fell to defeat against Spain, but could only draw with Albania after the Albanians’ gutsy fightback.
Croatia came into Euro 2024 with a strong reputation in major tournaments. They reached the final of the 2018 World Cup and the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup.
However, there is a growing sense this Croatian side is nearing the end of its cycle. Manager Zlatko Dalic knows his squad lacks speed and athleticism, but he hopes there’s enough guile to overcome the Italians.
Italy seemed relatively threatening in their 2-1 win over Albania, shrugging off the Albanians’ first-minute opener to take the lead within ten minutes.
However, things unravelled against Spain. They were taught a footballing lesson on Thursday evening, with the likes of Jorginho and Chiesa totally dominated. Changes are likely against Croatia to freshen things up with qualification all but certain.
Probable Lineups for Croatia vs Italy
The probable lineup for Croatia in 4-3-3:
- Livakovic; Juranovic, Perisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Brozovic, Majer, Kramaric, Budimir
The probable lineup for Italy in 4-3-3:
- Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Dimarco, Calafiori, Bastoni, Frattesi, Cristante, Barella, Pellegrini, Zaccagni, Scamacca
Italians unlikely to want a goalfest
Italy’s head coach, Luciano Spalletti, will want his team to show better control and discipline against Croatia. The narrow 1-0 loss to Spain flattered Italy, since the Spaniards created a glut of great chances throughout.
With goal difference still a possible issue if Albania upset the form guide and beat Spain, Italy will surely adopt a safety-first approach in Leipzig.
Italy have scored and conceded two in their first two games. Croatia have also only managed to score twice in their two games.
This game is the ideal scenario for Italy’s backline to demonstrate its watertight nature with everything on the line.
- Croatia vs Italy Tip 1: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 with Betway
A draw keeps the Croatians at bay for Italy
Croatia will still be smarting from their late disappointment against the Albanians. After coming from a goal down to lead 2-1, they were unable to close out the game and succumbed to a last-gasp equaliser.
As a result, only a win will do for the Croatians against Italy. In contrast, Italy don’t need the win anywhere near as desperately.
This means they’ll be more than happy to invite Croatia onto them and pick them off wherever they can. Since the motivation to win is not as strong across both teams, a draw seems increasingly likely.
- Croatia vs Italy Tip 2: Drawn Match @ 3.20 with Betway
Italy happy to avoid any first-half fireworks
Looking at the state of play in Group B, Italy know a draw is all they need to secure the second place and automatic qualification into the knockout stages.
Even if Albania get an unlikely win over Spain, they would need to win by two clear goals if the Italians draw with Croatia. This does seem like a far-fetched scenario at best.
Historically, the Italians have played tournament football better than most and know a gung-ho approach is unnecessary on Monday night. That’s why they’ll be happy to ease their way into this game and avoid any fireworks in the opening 45 minutes.
- Croatia vs Italy Tip 3: 0-0 1st Half Correct Score @ 2.80 with Betway