Chelsea’s away day struggles could intensify with tricky trips to Fulham, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, making them outsiders for the top four.
Chelsea Outright Betting Markets | Odds |
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Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why is Chelsea’s Home Form So Much Better Than Their Away Form?
It’s been very difficult to bet on Chelsea’s Premier League games in the 2024/25 due to the unpredictable form of Enzo Maresca’s men.
Since the turn of the New Year, Chelsea have been imperious at Stamford Bridge. They’ve won five of their six home games in 2025, conceding only four goals in the process.
You could argue that the Blues’ rock-solid home form and their inconsistent away form shows the team’s lack of resilience.
However, a closer look at the squad’s average age reveals a different potential cause. In the 2024/25 season, Chelsea’s average age of players used in the Premier League is just 23.9.
This is the second-lowest average age of any team in Europe’s top five domestic leagues. With Enzo Maresca having such a young side, it’s no surprise many of his promising stars prefer playing in front of their own fans.
Not only will a younger squad enjoy their home comforts, but they’ll also demonstrate more inconsistency than older, more experienced squads.
Their inconsistency has puzzled Maresca at times in the season. The busy festive season exposed the young Blues’ frailties. They went five games without a win, including a 2-0 defeat to newly promoted Ipswich Town.
Chelsea's Top Four Hopes Falter Against Rivals
Despite Chelsea currently holding onto fourth place by the narrowest of margins, we still see them as outsiders for a top-four finish. That’s because they are yet to beat anyone above them in the table.
In fact, in the last couple of months, Chelsea have lost at the likes of Manchester City, Brighton, Aston Villa and Arsenal. Their only wins have come against relegation-threatened Leicester and Southampton, as well as out-of-form West Ham and Tottenham.
They were even held to a goalless draw at west London neighbours Brentford this week. The Bees, who are comfortably mid-table in the Premier League, have little to play for but still found it easy enough to shut out Maresca’s side.
Assessing the Premier League Run-In for Chelsea’s Champions League Bid
With seven league games remaining, Chelsea play four at Stamford Bridge and three away. On paper, this sounds promising for Chelsea’s Champions League qualification hopes. Why is it likely to be harder than it seems?
The Blues’ next game at home to relegation-bound Ipswich Town side seems like their best chance of three points between now and the end of May. Ipswich average just 0.87 points away from Portman Road.
After that, Chelsea prepare for their west London derby at Fulham, who defeated league leaders Liverpool 3-2 at Craven Cottage this week – something Chelsea haven’t managed this season.
They then return to Stamford Bridge for a double-header of games against Merseyside sides Everton and Liverpool. Everton are much-improved under David Moyes and managed a draw with second-placed Arsenal last weekend. Meanwhile, Liverpool need no introduction and could be champions by the time they roll up to the capital.
After Liverpool, a huge six-pointer at St. James’ Park awaits with the Blues travelling to face Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. At the time of writing, the Magpies are only below Chelsea on goal difference.
Their season ends with a final home game against Rubin Amorim’s underperforming Manchester United. They then face a challenging final day trip to Nottingham Forest, who may also need the points to clinch a Champions League spot.
With so many six-pointers, you could argue that Chelsea’s destiny is still in their hands. However, their inability to beat teams in and around the top four is cause for our scepticism.
Manchester City are still just one point behind both Chelsea and Newcastle. The average points-per-game value of City’s opponents for the rest of the season is just 1.26. That’s why Pep Guardiola’s team are still the value bet for fourth place.