Are Atletico the Value Play in the UCL Last 16 Madrid Derby?

tletico Madrid qualified straight into the UCL last 16, while Real relied on the play-offs. This means little now as we enter the knockout phase.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Can Atletico Spoil Real’s Aim for a Third Champions League Title in Four Years?

Atletico Madrid enjoyed a rock-solid league phase of this season’s Champions League, winning six and losing two of their eight games. In contrast, Real’s five wins and three defeats meant they were forced to qualify for the last 16 by overcoming Manchester City in the knockout play-offs.

Domestically speaking, there’s not much to separate Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid this season. Just one point, in fact. At the time of writing, Real sit second, a point ahead of Diego Simeone’s Atletico.

In addition, Atletico are undefeated in their last four La Liga meetings with Real. The teams have drawn 1-1 in their last three La Liga fixtures, with Atletico the last team to win a Madrid derby back in September 2023. Atletico also overcame Real after extra time in a Copa del Rey tie last season.

In Madrid, many view Atletico as the complete opposite of what Real stand for. It’s a club defined by its relentless determination and spirit, rather than ‘Galacticos’. While that unity can take a team far, there are several reasons to suggest that Real’s star quality may shine through on the continental stage.

Atletico’s Poor European Head-to-Head Record With Real is Why We’re Backing Real

Real and Atletico have met nine times in European competition. They met in the 2016/17 UCL semi-finals, with Real winning 4-2 on aggregate. They even locked horns the year before in the final, where Real edged out Atleti in a heartbreaking penalty shootout.

The UCL luck was also against Atleti in 2013/14, when they were eventually thrashed 4-1 in the final after extra time. In fact, the last time Atletico got the better of Real in European competition was in 1958/59, where they won their semi-final on the away goals rule.

Atletico have had the upper hand over Real in recent domestic encounters. However, it remains uncertain whether Diego Simeone has what it takes to outwit Los Blancos on the Champions League stage.

Despite Atletico’s four-game unbeaten streak in the Madrid derby, Simeone’s managerial record against Real Madrid is far from strong. The Argentine has averaged just 1.13 points per game in 45 competitive matches against Real. 

His Atletico teams have conceded 73 goals in 45 games, winning only 12 of his 45 match-ups.

This suggests that Simeone’s defensively sound and heavily structured side often find it difficult to hold back Real’s free-flowing, attacking-minded approach.

Real have scored 12 more goals than Atleti in La Liga this term and only conceded seven more than Simeone’s men, despite their attacking style. With the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham all in great form right now, it’s hard to bet against them.

Having the first leg at the Bernabeu could work to Real’s advantage. This would give them a chance to build a first-leg lead to take to the Metropolitano. Then, the pressure would be on Atletico to attack rather than play on the counter.