Atlanta United vs New York City FC Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Atlanta United vs New York City FC
- Match to be drawn with odds of @3.60 on 10bet and @3.40 on Parions Sport, equating to a 27.8%/29.4% implied probability.
- Daniel Rios to score anytime with odds of @2.60 on 10bet, indicating a 38.5% implied probability.
- Under 2.5 total goals with odds of @2.25 on 10bet, representing a 44.4% implied probability.
We expect a tightly contested draw between Atlanta and New York with a final scoreline of 1-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Atlanta United welcome New York City FC to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday night, with the teams split by 13 points in the Eastern Conference standings.
Atlanta are waving goodbye to Caleb Wiley, who is reportedly on his way to Chelsea. Wiley, with 21 MLS starts to his name this season, is obviously a big loss for a team currently languishing 11th in the Eastern Conference after three straight defeats.
Having won only four of their last 11 home matches this term, it has undeniably been a frustrating campaign for the home side here. Meanwhile, New York City FC have been hard to beat throughout the season.
After missing the playoffs in 2023, New York are well-positioned to play postseason football later this year.
This is the second time these sides have matched up in 2024 after a draw in the Big Apple in April.
Probable Lineups for Atlanta United vs New York City FC
Atlanta United probable XI:
Guzan; Abram, Williams, Cobb; Lennon, Slisz, Muyumba, Hernandez; Lobjanidze, Rios, Silva.
New York City FC probable XI:
Freese; Ilenic, Martins, Tanasijevic, McFarlane; Parks, Haak, Perea; Wolf, Martinez, Rodriguez.
Spoils Shared At Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta are a much better side than the standings suggest. Their expected goal difference is only a shade behind New York City’s, with +0.16 per 90 compared with +0.26.
The hosts have lost some key players in the transfer window, including Caleb Wiley and Thiago Almada. While this leaves them considerably weaker for the next few matches, there is still a solid framework with this team, which suggests they can try to be competitive against NYCFC.
New York have won only three of their 11 away matches. A draw away to the Chicago Fire ended a three-match losing streak on the road. Although the visitors have the superior team on paper at the moment, we are backing Atlanta to at least put up a fight here. There’s value in taking them to get a draw at 3.75.
- Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 1: Match to be drawn @ 3.60 with 10bet @3.40 on Parions Sport
Rios Adds Sixth Goal of the Campaign
Daniel Rios has five goal contributions in his last five matches. He’s scored in three of those contests. Currently one of MLS’s form players, Rios is a great bet at 2.40 to find the net here.
New York’s defence has strong underlying metrics, but they have kept a lone clean sheet in their last four road fixtures. Rios has been shooting more often lately, with 14 shots taken in his last five outings.
If we like Atlanta’s chances of getting a result, Rios is going to have to deliver something in the final third. With Almada and Georgios Giakoumakis gone, Rios is the team’s main goal threat, despite having scored just five times this season.
- Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 2: Daniel Rios Anytime Scorer @ 2.60 with 10bet
Low-Scoring Affair Expected
Both teams are in the top half of Eastern Conference teams for expected goals conceded. New York’s 13 goals conceded on the road are the best in the Conference. Atlanta have scored one or no goals in four of their last six MLS matches.
Given their poor away form of late, New York will be content with maintaining their strong defensive record away from home. Atlanta’s attack has posted some good chance creation numbers at home this season, but they are lacking firepower without Almada and Giakoumakis.
Like Atlanta, New York have scored one or no goals in four of their last six. Charlotte FC are the only team in the top seven of the Eastern Conference to score fewer goals than Nick Cushing’s side.
Given the price we are getting, we love the value in taking the under here. A 1-1 or 1-0 either way seems like a very likely outcome.
- Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 3: Under 2.5 total goals @ 2.25 with 10bet