Our betting expert expects a wide-open contest to see Alberto Moleiro strike in a surprise home win.
Best bets for Villarreal vs Real Madrid
- Double Chance - Villarreal or Draw at odds of 1.81 on 1xBet
- Villarreal to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 2.18 on 1xBet
- Alberto Moleiro to score anytime at odds of 3.00 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Villarreal 3-2 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Villarreal: Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior
Villarreal head into this game on the back of a disappointing week. They were beaten 2-0 in La Liga by Real Betis, before a 2-1 Champions League defeat to Ajax on Tuesday. However, the stakes were not high in that match, with the Yellow Submarine’s European ambitions already over.
Overall, Marcelino’s side have had an excellent domestic campaign. They are just one place below Real Madrid in the standings, and have a game in hand.
Los Blancos have enjoyed a better week, following a dismal start to 2026. New boss Alvaro Arbeloa secured his first win against Levante last weekend. His side then dominated Monaco 6-1 in Europe on Tuesday night.
Probable lineups for Villarreal vs Real Madrid
Villarreal expected lineup: Junior, Pedraza, Veiga, Foyth, Navarro, Moleiro, Parejo, Gueye, Buchanan, Moreno, Mikautadze
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Asencio, Carvajal, Camavinga, Valverde, Vinicius, Bellingham, Mastantuono, Mbappe
Los Blancos to drop points at the Ceramica
This is almost always one of Real Madrid’s most difficult tasks on the calendar in La Liga. They’ve won on just one of their last eight league visits to the Ceramica. The Yellow Submarine tend to find a way to rise to the occasion whenever they face Los Blancos.
While Villarreal don’t boast a great record against stronger teams this season, they have enough quality to expose their opponents’ flaws. Marcelino sets his team up to play on the break, and they’ve avoided defeat in 79% of their league matches.
At home, they have been particularly strong, having collected 2.50 points per match. The hosts also rank in the top three in La Liga for both goals scored and fewest goals conceded.
Bettors would be wise not to read too much into their midweek defeat. Several regulars were rested against Ajax, with this match clearly the priority. There seems to be value in backing Villarreal to again avoid defeat at home against Los Blancos.
- Villarreal vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Double Chance - Villarreal or Draw at odds of 1.81 on 1xBet
Hosts to beat Courtois at least twice
A big midweek win did help improve the mood at the Santiago Bernabeu, which had been hostile last Saturday. There were fewer jeers against Monaco, and Vinicius Junior displayed one of his best performances of the campaign. However, there was still plenty to dislike about their performance from a defensive standpoint.
Monaco, who had lost seven of their previous eight Ligue 1 fixtures, had 20 shots across the 90 minutes. Real Madrid failed to keep a tight defence again, a week on from conceding three times against second-tier Albacete.
The visitors’ main holding midfielder, Aurelien Tchouameni, was previously suspended, further hampering their chances. That could be an issue against an opposing side that is capable of breaking with real speed.
Villarreal have scored at least twice in 80% of their league outings at the Ceramica this term. They are likely to do so again here with an implied probability of 45.5%.
- Villarreal vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Villarreal to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 2.18 on 1xBet
Moleiro’s hot streak to continue
While there are four Villarreal players competing for two places up front, the left-wing role has already been decided. Alberto Moleiro is the undisputed choice in that position, thanks to some fantastic performances in recent weeks.
The summer signing from Las Palmas has scored four goals in his last six La Liga outings. That has taken his overall tally to eight, the most of any player who doesn’t normally start as a striker.
Moleiro’s return is even more impressive, given he actually took some time to adjust following his switch to the Ceramica. He didn’t find the net until Matchday seven against Athletic. The 22-year-old hasn’t looked back since, scoring some spectacular strikes to emerge as a candidate for Spain’s World Cup squad.
Real Madrid still have issues at right-back. Dani Carvajal is lacking match sharpness, but may start here given the need to use Fede Valverde in midfield. That adds to the sense that Moleiro will make his mark and potentially get on the scoresheet again.
- Villarreal vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Alberto Moleiro to score anytime at odds of 3.00 on 1xBet